目录 前言 第1章 绪论 1 1.1 背景与意义 2 1.1.1 研究背景 2 1.1.2 研究目的和意义 3 1.2 前沿与进展 3 1.2.1 国内外城市积涝模型研究进展及评述 3 1.2.2 国内外城市积涝灾害避难迁安研究进展及评述 6 1.2.3 国内外城市积涝灾害迁安支持系统进展及评述 12 1.2.4 存在的问题 13 参考文献 15 第2章 城市暴雨积涝情景模拟 21 2.1 研究区概况 21 2.1.1 自然概况 21 2.1.2 研究区积涝灾害概况 22 2.1.3 数据来源 23 2.2 城市暴雨积涝数值模拟 23 2.2.1 研究区集水区确定 23 2.2.2 道里区降雨时程分析 23 2.2.3 排水分区及排水设施概化 24 2.2.4 城市下垫面概化与网格划分 26 2.2.5 城市暴雨积涝模型构建 28 2.3 情景设定 34 2.3.1 基于信息扩散理论的哈尔滨暴雨发生概率分析 34 2.3.2 情景分析及设定 37 2.4 城市暴雨积涝数值模型验证 38 2.4.1 暴雨过程测定 38 2.4.2 模型验证 39 参考文献 40 第3章 城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难困难度评价 41 3.1 居民水中行走实验 41 3.1.1 实验目的 41 3.1.2 实验场地、设备与人员选定 41 3.1.3 实验内容设计 43 3.1.4 实验方法 43 3.1.5 实验结果 45 3.2 居民避难行为调查问卷 47 3.2.1 问卷调查设计 47 3.2.2 问卷数据统计 49 3.3 城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难外在影响因素分析 49 3.3.1 居民行走与水深、流速关系分析 49 3.3.2 居民水中行走安全性分析 50 3.4 城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难内在影响因素分析 51 3.4.1 居民避难行为动机影响因素分析 51 3.4.2 避难影响因素与避难选择相关性分析 55 3.4.3 居民自身特性与避难行为之间相关性分析 56 3.5 城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难行为研究 57 3.5.1 研究方法与数据来源 59 3.5.2 居民避难行为影响因素分析 60 3.5.3 结果分析 63 3.5.4 对策建议与结论 65 3.6 基于避难行为的城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难困难度评价 66 3.6.1 居民避难困难度评价指标体系构建 66 3.6.2 评价模型构建 69 3.6.3 评价结果 69 参考文献 71 第4章 城市暴雨积涝灾害应急避难所与物资库优化布局 72 4.1 城市暴雨积涝灾害应急避难所优化布局 72 4.1.1 应急避难所选址影响因素分析 72 4.1.2 应急避难所优化布局原则 73 4.1.3 道里区避难所现状 74 4.1.4 避难所选址适宜区确定 74 4.1.5 避难所优化布局模型构建及应用 78 4.2 基于TOPSIS评价法的城市应急避难所选址适宜性评价 80 4.2.1 研究思路与方法 82 4.2.2 指标选取 82 4.2.3 指标量化与权重计算 84 4.2.4 城市应急避难所选址适宜性评价模型构建 85 4.2.5 实证研究 87 4.3 城市暴雨积涝灾害救援物资库优化布局 89 4.3.1 应急物资库选址影响因素分析 90 4.3.2 应急物资库布局原则 91 4.3.3 救援物资库选址适宜区确定 91 4.3.4 城市暴雨积涝灾害救援物资库优化布局模型构建及应用 94 参考文献 97 第5章 暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安决策分析与实例研究 99 5.1 居民迁安模型要素选取 99 5.1.1 研究区道路网提取 99 5.1.2 需求点信息获取方法 101 5.1.3 人口分布计算 102 5.1.4 需求点信息提取 103 5.2 城市暴雨积涝灾害迁安模型构建 104 5.2.1 最优路径计算 104 5.2.2 基于模糊可变综合评价的避难所选择 105 5.3 实例应用 107 5.3.1 基于静态最优路径的居民迁安决策 107 5.3.2 基于动态最优路径的居民迁安决策 107 5.4 城市暴雨积涝灾害应急救援研究 112 5.4.1 城市暴雨积涝灾害应急救援约束条件 113 5.4.2 城市暴雨积涝灾害救援模型构建 113 5.4.3 实证研究 114 参考文献 117 第6章 积涝灾害避难迁安决策支持系统集成 118 6.1 系统总体框架 118 6.1.1 系统设计原则 118 6.1.2 系统体系结构设计 119 6.1.3 系统功能实现 119 6.2 系统数据库设计 120 6.2.1 数据库设计流程 120 6.2.2 数据库设计原则 121 6.2.3 数据库设计方案 122 6.3 系统模型库设计 123 6.3.1 模型库设计原理 123 6.3.2 模型库设计方案 124 6.4 开发实例 125 参考文献 128 第7章 基于兵棋推演的积涝灾害居民避难迁安 129 7.1 城市积涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演理论 130 7.1.1 相关概念界定 130 7.1.2 应急避难兵棋推演理论 131 7.1.3 积涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演原理 132 7.2 城市积涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演内涵和流程 132 7.3 城市积涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演规则及评价方法 132 7.3.1 推演规则 132 7.3.2 兵棋推演规则制定方法 134 7.3.3 评价方法 138 7.4 城市积涝灾害居民应急避难过程兵棋推演 139 7.5 城市积涝灾害居民应急避难推演结果评价 146 参考文献 147 彩图 Contents Foreword Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background and significance 2 1.1.1 Research background 2 1.1.2 Research purpose and significance 3 1.2 Frontiers and progress 3 1.2.1 Current situation of research on the model of urban waterlogging disaster at home and abroad 3 1.2.2 Current situation of research on resident evacuation and retreating for urban waterlogging disaster at home and abroad 6 1.2.3 Current situation of research on the retreating support system of urban waterlogging disaster at home and abroad 12 1.2.4 Current issues 13 Reference 15 Chapter 2 Urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario simulation 21 2.1 Research area 21 2.1.1 Natural conditions 21 2.1.2 Overview of waterlogging disasters in the research area 22 2.1.3 Data collection 23 2.2 Numerical simulation of urban rainstorm waterlogging 23 2.2.1 Determination of catchment region in the research area 23 2.2.2 Time history analysis of rainfall in the Daoli region 23 2.2.3 Generalization of zoning and facilities of drainage 24 2.2.4 Generalization of underlying surface and grid division 26 2.2.5 Construction of the model of urban rainstorm waterlogging 28 2.3 Scenarios setting 34 2.3.1 Probability analysis of rainstorm based on the information diffusion theory in Haerbin 34 2.3.2 Analysis and setting of scenarios 37 2.4 Verification of the numerical model of urban rainstorm waterlogging 38 2.4.1 Measurement of rainstorm process 38 2.4.2 Model verification 39 Reference 40 Chapter 3 Evaluation on residents’evacuation difficulty of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 41 3.1 Resident walking experiment in water 41 3.1.1 Experimental purpose 41 3.1.2 Experimental site, equipment, and personnel selection 41 3.1.3 Experimental content design 43 3.1.4 Experimental method 43 3.1.5 Experimental result 45 3.2 Questionnaire of residents’evacuation behavior 47 3.2.1 Questionnaire design 47 3.2.2 Questionnaire data statistics 49 3.3 Analysis on the external factors of residents’evacuation of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 49 3.3.1 Analysis of relationship between residents’walking and water depth and velocity 49 3.3.2 Safety analysis of residents’walking in water 50 3.4 Analysis on the internal factor of residents’evacuation of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 51 3.4.1 Analysis of influencing factors of residents’evacuation behavior motivation 51 3.4.2 Analysis of the relationship between the influence factors and the choice of evacuation 55 3.4.3 Analysis of the relationship between residents’characteristics and evacuation behavior 56 3.5 Research on residents’evacuation behavior of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 57 3.5.1 Research methods and data sources 59 3.5.2 Analysis of influencing factors of residents’evacuation behavior 60 3.5.3 Result analysis 63 3.5.4 Suggestions and conclusions 65 3.6 Residents’evacuation difficulty evaluation of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on evacuation behavior 66 3.6.1 Construction of evaluation index system of residents’evacuation difficulty 66 3.6.2 Construction of evaluation model 69 3.6.3 Evaluation results 69 Reference 71 Chapter 4 Urban rainstorm waterlogging emergency shelters and materials library layout optimization 72 4.1 Urban rainstorm waterlogging emergency shelters layout optimization 72 4.1.1 Analysis of impact factors of emergency shelters location 72 4.1.2 The principles of emergency shelters layout optimization 73 4.1.3 The present situation of emergency shelters in Daoli district 74 4.1.4 Determination of the area suit for emergency shelters location 74 4.1.5 Establishment and application of emergency shelters layout optimization model 78 4.2 Suitability evaluation of urban emergency shelters location based on assessment method TOPSIS 80 4.2.1 Research thoughts and methods 82 4.2.2 Index selection 82 4.2.3 Index quantification and weight calculation 84 4.2.4 Establishment of urban emergency shelters location suitability evaluation model 85 4.2.5 Empirical studies 87 4.3 Urban rainstorm waterlogging emergency materials library layout optimization 89 4.3.1 Analysis of impact factors of emergency materials library location 90 4.3.2 The principles of emergency materials library layout optimization 91 4.3.3 Determine of the area suit for emergency materials library location 91 4.3.4 Construction and application of emergency materials library layout optimization model for urban rainstorm waterlogging 94 References 97 Chapter 5 Analysis on resident evacuation decision and case study of rainstorm waterlogging disasters 99 5.1 Selection of elements of the resident evacuation model 99 5.1.1 Extraction of road network in the study area 99 5.1.2 The information acquisition methods of demand points 101 5.1.3 Calculation of population distribution 102 5.1.4 The information extraction of demand points 103 5.2 Construction of the evacuation model of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters 104 5.2.1 Calculation of the optimum path 104 5.2.2 Selection of the shelter based on the fuzzy variable comprehensive evaluation 105 5.3 Case study 107 5.3.1 Resident evacuation decision based on the static optimal path 107 5.3.2 Resident evacuation decision based on the dynamic optimal path 107 5.4 Research on emergency rescue of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 112 5.4.1 The constraints of emergency rescue of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 113 5.4.2 Constructing the emergency rescue model of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster 113 5.4.3 Empirical study 114 References 117 Chapter 6 Integrating evacuation decision support system of rainstorm waterlogging disasters 118 6.1 The system overall framework 118 6.1.1 The system design principle 118 6.1.2 The system architecture design 119 6.1.3 The system function 119 6.2 The system database design 120 6.2.1 The design flow of database 120 6.2.2 The design principles of database 121 6.2.3 The design scheme of database 122 6.3 The design of the system model base 123 6.3.1 The design principles of model base 123 6.3.2 The design scheme of model base 124 6.4 Development example 125 References 128 Chapter 7 Resident evacuation and retreating for waterlogging disaster based on wargame simulation theory 129 7.1 Wargame theory for resident evacuation and retreating of urban waterlogging disaster 130 7.1.1 Definition of related concepts 130 7.1.2 Wargame simulation theory of resident evacuation 131 7.1.3 The principle of wargame simulation for resident emergency evacuation of waterlogging disaster 132 7.2 Content and process of wargame simulation theory for resident emergency evacuation and retreating of urban waterlogging disaster 132 7.3 Rules and evaluation methods of wargame simulation theory for resident emergency evacuation and retreating of urban waterlogging disaster 132 7.3.1 Simulation rules 132 7.3.2 Method of making rules for wargame simulation theory 134 7.3.3 Evaluation method 138 7.4 Resident evacuation and retreating process based on wargame simulation of urban waterlogging disaster 139 7.5 Evaluation of the results of wargame simulation for resident evacuation and retreating of urban waterlogging disaster 146 Reference 147 Color picture
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