目录 前言 第一部分典型海岸带冲淤演变趋势与影响分析1 提要3 引言5 第一章现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析6 1.1现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势预测6 1.2现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变影响分析17 1.3应对策略与措施19 第二章长江三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析20 2.1长江三角洲冲淤演变趋势预测20 2.2长江三角洲冲淤演变影响分析33 2.3应对策略与措施40 第三章废黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析41 3.1废黄河三角洲海岸演变趋势41 3.2废黄河三角洲海岸演变的影响分析52 3.3应对策略与措施57 参考文献58 第二部分典型海岸带盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析65 提要67 引言68 第四章长江河口盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析71 4.1长江河口三维盐水入侵模式的建立和验证71 4.2气候变化和人类活动对长江河口盐水入侵的影响预测82 4.3盐水入侵对长江河口淡水资源的影响及对策111 第五章珠江河口盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析120 5.1珠江口三维盐水入侵模式的建立和验证120 5.2气候变化和人类活动对珠江河口盐水入侵的影响预测137 5.3盐水入侵演变对珠江河口淡水资源、生态环境的影响及对策156 参考文献165 第三部分典型海岸带生态系统景观格局演变趋势与影响分析169 提要171 引言173 第六章长江河口盐沼湿地生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析175 6.1长江口盐沼湿地概况175 6.2海平面上升情景下长江口盐沼湿地景观的演变趋势177 6.3长江口盐沼湿地景观演变的潜在影响188 6.4应对策略与措施198 第七章广西典型红树林生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析200 7.1典型红树林分布区区域概况200 7.2红树林景观演变对海平面上升响应的原理浅析203 7.3海平面上升情景下典型红树林景观格局演变趋势205 7.4典型红树林生态系统景观演变的原因分析236 7.5红树林景观演变的潜在影响240 7.6应对策略与措施245 第八章海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析249 8.1三亚湾区域概况249 8.2温度和海水酸度对珊瑚影响的机理浅析251 8.3温度和海水酸度升高背景下三亚湾珊瑚礁生态系统景观演变趋势253 8.4珊瑚礁景观演变的潜在影响260 8.5应对策略与措施260 参考文献261 第四部分典型河口水域渔业生态系统演变趋势与影响分析273 提要275 引言277 第九章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业资源演变趋势279 9.1气候变化情景与动态生物气候分室模型279 9.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业资源演变趋势285 第十章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统健康演变趋势305 10.1渔业生态系统健康评价指标体系305 10.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统健康演变趋势308 第十一章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统可持续发展的应对策略314 11.1气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统的响应分析314 11.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统可持续发展的应对策略317 参考文献320 第五部分典型海岸带脆弱性评估与应用示范325 提要327 引言329 第十二章海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估331 12.1长江口滨海湿地生态系统331 12.2海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估模式333 12.3长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与方法334 12.4海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性空间评估338 12.5应用SLAMM模型评价海平面上升对长江口滨海湿地影响341 12.6应对海平面上升对长江口滨海湿地影响的对策与措施347 第十三章海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估351 13.1广西海岸带红树林生态系统351 13.2海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估模式352 13.3广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数355 13.4海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性空间评估360 13.5应对海平面上升对广西海岸带红树林影响的对策与措施364 第十四章气候变化影响下海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估368 14.1海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统369 14.2气候变化影响下珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估模式370 14.3珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数371 14.4气候变化影响下海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性空间评估374 14.5应对气候变化对海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统影响的对策与措施378 第十五章海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性评估379 15.1上海地区自然地理条件380 15.2上海市社会经济概况380 15.3海平面上升叠加风暴潮导致的洪涝灾害情景模拟383 15.4海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性评估模式389 15.5社会经济脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数392 15.6海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性空间评估398 15.7海平面上升叠加风暴潮导致的洪涝灾害的应对策略与措施401 参考文献406 Contents Foreword Part I Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the typical coastal zones1 Abstract3 Introduction5 Chapter 1 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6 1.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6 1.2Influence of the Yellow River Delta erosion deposition evolution17 1.3Countermeasures 19 Chapter 2 Evolution trend and influence analysis of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20 2.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20 2.2Influence of the Yangtze Delta erosion deposition evolution33 2.3Countermeasures40 Chapter 3 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the abandoned Yellow River Delta41 3.1Evolution trend of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast41 3.2Influence of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast evolution52 3.3Countermeasures57 Reference58 Part Two Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the typical coastal zones65 Abstract 67 Introduction 68 Chapter 4 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary71 4.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Yangtze Estuary71 4.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary82 4.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource in the Yangtze Estuary111 Chapter 5 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary120 5.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Pearl Estuary120 5.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary137 5.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource and ecological environment in the Pearl Estuary156 References165 Part III Landscape pattern evolution trend and influence in the typical coastal zone169 Abstract171 Introduction173 Chapter 6 Landscape changes and influence of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary175 6.1Overview of the salt marshes of the Yangtze River Estuary175 6.2Landscape changes of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary under scenarios of sea level rise177 6.3Potential influences of wetland landscape changes in the Yangtze Estuary188 6.4Countermeasures 198 Chapter 7 Landscape changes and influence of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200 7.1Overview of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200 7.2Principle responses of mangrove landscapes under sea level rise203 7.3Landscape changes of typical mangrove ecosystem under scenarios of sea level rise205 7.4Driving forces of typical mangrove landscape changes236 7.5Potential effects of mangrove landscape changes240 7.6Countermeasures245 Chapter 8 Landscape changes and influence analysis of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249 8.1Overview of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249 8.2Principle effects of seawater temperature and acidity on coral growth 251 8.3Landscape changes of coral reefs in the Sanya Bay with the seawater temperature and acidity rises253 8.4Potential effects of coral reef landscape changes in the Sanya Bay260 8.5Countermeasures260 References261 Part IV Evolution trend and influence analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuarine waters273 Abstract275 Introduction277 Chapter 9 Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios279 9.1Climate change scenarios and Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM)279 9.2Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios285 Chapter 10 Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios305 10.1The indicator system of fishery ecosystem health305 10.2Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios308 Chapter 11 Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in typical estuaries under climate change scenarios 314 11.1Response analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios314 11.2Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios317 References320 Part Five Vulnerability assessment for the typical coastal zones and its application325 Abstract327 Introduction329 Chapter 12 Vulnerability assessment of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise331 12.1The wetland ecosystems in the Yangtze Estuary331 12.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise333 12.3The indicator system and methodology for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands334 12.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under influence of sea level rise338 12.5The impact evaluation of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands using the SLAMM model341 12.6The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetland347 Chapter 13 Vulnerability assessment of the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the scenarios of sea level rise 351 13.1The mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi351 13.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise 352 13.3The vulnerability assessment indicator system and index for evaluating the mangroves in Guangxi355 13.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the mangroves in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise360 13.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the mangroves in Guangxi364 Chapter 14 Vulnerability assessment of the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan under the influence of sea level rise368 14.1The coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan 369 14.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems to climate changes370 14.3The indicator system and index for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems371 14.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan to climate changes374 14.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of climate changes on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan378 Chapter 15 Assessment of socio economic vulnerability of Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges379 15.1The natural and geographical conditions of Shanghai380 15.2The general socio economic status of Shanghai380 15.3The projections of flooding risk caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges383 15.4The assessment model for socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges389 15.5The indicator system and vulnerability index for socio economic vulnerability assessment 392 15.6Spatial assessment of the socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges398 15.7The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of flooding risks caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges401 References406
京公网安备 11010102004214号