目录 总序 序 前言 第1章碳排放交易的时代背景与理论基础1 1.1温室气体与全球气候变化2 1.2应对气候变化的减排政策工具3 1.3减排政策工具选择5 1.4碳排放权交易机制的主要特点9 1.5碳排放权交易机制设计关键科学问题11 第2章应对气候变化战略中的碳市场15 2.1国际碳市场产生背景16 2.2全球主要碳市场进展及经验17 2.3中国碳市场试点主要特色22 2.4中国碳市场试点经验总结33 第3章碳市场对实现中国碳强度下降目标的成本节约效应38 3.1碳市场机制的成本节约效应39 3.2省际碳排放权交易模型40 3.3关键变量计算与数据处理45 3.4中国碳市场成本节约效果评估47 3.5结论与讨论55 第4章碳配额初始分配方式的影响57 4.1配额分配方式的社会经济影响概述58 4.2CE3MS模型59 4.3数据来源及情景设置62 4.4不同初始配额分配方式的影响评估63 4.5结论与讨论68 第5章中国碳市场行业覆盖范围70 5.1碳市场行业覆盖范围的影响因素71 5.2理论模型72 5.3数据处理与情景设置75 5.4碳市场覆盖范围的实证分析80 5.5结论与讨论86 第6章碳市场中的交易成本及其影响88 6.1交易费用89 6.2理论模型91 6.3数据处理与情景设置92 6.4实证分析96 6.5结论与讨论103 第7章全国统一碳市场对中国区域经济发展的影响105 7.1统一碳市场与区域经济发展106 7.2模型描述及情景设置107 7.3全国统一碳市场对区域经济的影响109 7.4结论与讨论113 第8章市场势力对碳市场效率的影响115 8.1市场势力、策略性行为与碳排放权交易116 8.2碳市场中策略性厂商的识别117 8.3策略性厂商决策模型118 8.4各试点地区样本特征119 8.5实证分析124 8.6结论与讨论129 第9章碳市场对企业竞争力的影响131 9.1碳市场与企业竞争力相关研究132 9.2模型方法134 9.3样本数据136 9.4碳市场对企业价值的影响变化及原因138 9.5结论与讨论148 第10章碳排放权交易与低碳技术投资149 10.1碳排放权交易与低碳技术投资相关研究150 10.2投资环境不确定因素与投资决策过程建模153 10.3碳市场对低碳技术投资的潜在影响评估157 10.4结论与讨论159 第11章碳市场与可再生能源政策的协同效应161 11.1混合政策的潜在影响162 11.2混合政策的必要性163 11.3碳交易与可再生能源政策组合建模166 11.4双重政策的效果分析170 11.5结论与讨论172 第12章中国参与国际碳市场的潜在影响174 12.1碳市场连接相关研究175 12.2模型和情景设置177 12.3中欧碳市场连接的社会经济影响评估181 12.4结论与讨论185 第13章碳市场价格演化动力学机制186 13.1碳市场价格的演化及其影响因素187 13.2碳市场价格动力学建模189 13.3碳市场运行机制及相关数据195 13.4交易行为对碳价格的影响197 13.5结论与讨论197 第14章中国碳市场顶层设计重大问题及建议199 14.1加强配额总量顶层设计以保证经济中长期可持续发展200 14.2优化配额分配方案设计以促进区域均衡协调发展201 14.3处理好长期结构调整目标与短期保护产业竞争力之间的关系202 14.4优化政策组合推动低碳技术创新203 14.5推进能源市场化改革与碳市场相关立法以完善碳市场有效运行条件204 14.6加强碳市场与其他能源环境政策之间的协同设计205 14.7积极稳步推动试点碳市场向全国碳市场过渡206 参考文献208 Contents Preface Chapter 1 Background and theory foundation of carbon emission trading1 1.1 Greenhouse gas and global climate change 2 1.2 Policy instruments to tackle climate change 3 1.3 Determinants of climate policy instruments 5 1.4 Features of carbon ETS 9 1.5 Key scientific issues related to ETS 11 Chapter 2 Practice and experience of carbon ETS15 2.1 Background of ETS in other countries 16 2.2 Development and experience of main ETS in the world 17 2.3 Characteristics of Chinas ETS pilots 22 2.4 Lessons learned from the ETS pilots in China 33 Chapter 3 Evaluating the cost-saving effect of ETS to achieve the carbon intensityreduction target in China38 3.1 Cost-saving effect of ETS 39 3.2 Modeling carbon emission trading among provinces 40 3.3 Key variables calculation and data preparation 45 3.4 Evaluating the cost-saving effect in China 47 3.5 Conclusions and discussion 55 Chapter 4 Implication of initial allocation of carbon allowance57 4.1 Overview of the socioeconomic impact of allowance allocation approaches 58 4.2 CE3MS model 59 4.3 Data sources and scenario setting 62 4.4 Evaluating the impact of allowance allocation approaches 63 4.5 Conclusions and discussion 68 Chapter 5 Sector coverage of the ETS in China70 5.1 Determinants of sector coverage of ETS 71 5.2 Theoretical model 72 5.3 Data preparation and scenario setting 75 5.5 Empirical study of the sector coverage 80 5.5 Conclusions and discussion 86 Chapter 6 Transaction costs of ETS and its implication88 6.1 Transaction costs 89 6.2 Theoretical model 91 6.3 Data preparation and scenario setting 92 6.4 Empirical study of the transaction costs 96 6.5 Conclusions and discussion 103 Chapter 7 The impact of the national ETS on the development of regional economies105 7.1 Interaction of ETS and regional economy development 106 7.2 Model description and scenario setting 107 7.3 Impact of the national ETS on regional economies 109 7.4 Conclusions and discussion 113 Chapter 8 Market power and ETS efficiency115 8.1 Market power and strategic behavior 116 8.2 Identification of the market power in ETS 117 8.3 Modeling the behavior of strategic firms 118 8.4 Characteristics of the sample firms in Chinas pilots 119 8.5 Empirical study of the market power 124 8.6 Conclusions and discussion 129 Chapter 9 The impact of ETS on the firms competitiveness131 9.1 Overview on Firms competitiveness in the EU ETS 132 9.2 Model 134 9.3 Sample firms and data 136 9.4 Impact of ETS on corporate value 138 9.5 Conclusions and discussion 148 Chapter 10 Carbon emission trading and low-carbon technology investment149 10.1 Literature on the interaction of ETS and low-carbon investment 150 10.2 Modeling the investment decision making under uncertainties 153 10.3 Assessment of the impact of Chinas ETS on low-carbon technology investment157 10.4 Conclusions and discussion 159 Chapter 11 Coordination of ETS and renewable energy policy161 11.1 Potential conflict of policy mix 162 11.2 Nature of policy mix 163 11.3 Modeling the impact of policy mix on electricity sector 166 11.4 Analyzing the effect of policy mix 170 11.5 Conclusions and discussion 172 Chapter 12 The international carbon emission trading and its implication for China174 12.1 Relevant studies on linking different carbon markets 175 12.2 Model and Scenarios 177 12.3 Evaluating the socio-economic impact of linking China and EU 181 12.4 Conclusions and discussion 185 Chapter 13 Carbon price dynamics186 13.1 Drivers of carbon price evolution 187 13.2 Modeling carbon price dynamics 189 13.3 Mechanism of ETS evolution and carbon price data 195 13.4 The impact of trading behavior on carbon price 197 13.5 Conclusions and discussion 197 Chapter 14 Key issues for top-level design of China ETS and policy recommendations199 14.1 Strengthen carbon cap setting design to keep medium-and long-term sustainableeconomic growth 200 14.2 Optimize carbon allowance allocation to balance the regional economydevelopment 201 14.3 Coordinate the long-term structure-adjustment goal and short-term competitiveness-protection 202 14.4 Optimize policy mix to promote low-carbon technology development 203 14.5 Promote market-oriented reform in energy sector and legislation related to carbontrading to improvethe efficiency and effectiveness of ETS 204 14.6 Coordinate ETS and other energy and climate policy 205 14.7 Promote the transition from ETS pilots to a unified national wide carbon market206 References208
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