目录 前言 缩写和缩略语 第1章 世界与中国能源发展概况l 1.1世界能源发展回顾2 l.1.1经济发展与能源消费呈正相关，能源弹性在不同时期差异显著2 1.1.2能源消费方式日趋高效清洁，清洁能源占比逐年提升3 1.1.3各主要国家能源强度随时间变化趋势不同，中国降幅最大4 1.1.4能源资源潜力并不悲观，油气储采比无显著下降趋势5 1.1.5能源消费增量基本来自发展中国家，出现能源峰值的国家日益增多5 1.2世界能源发展的新变化和新格局7 1.2.1次能源消费增速明显减缓，未来15年能源需求仍将持续增长7 1.2.2大宗工业品价格自2014年以来大幅下跌，油价降幅最大8 1.2.3上游能源企业利润大幅缩减，能源投资下滑且并购业务遇冷9 1.2.4清洁能源投资再创新高，清洁能源发展势头良好10 1.2.5《巴黎协议》签订，全球清洁能源转型持续推进10 1.3国际主要能源市场概况11 1.3.1石油储量稳步上升，区域分布极不平衡11 1.3.2石油市场供需增量结构发生变化，石油供应过剩现象严重11 1.3.3油价自2014年下半年以来大幅下跌，并可能长期维持较低水平14 1.3.4石油贸易量稳步上升，2015年贸易增速有所回升15 1.3.5天然气储量分布不平衡，主要集中于伊俄卡三国15 1.3.6天然气生产和消费增速放缓，亚太地区增速最高17 1.3.7各主要区域天然气价格自2008年后分化明显，近两年价格明显下跌19 1.3.8天然气贸易集中在少数国家，2015年贸易量有所复苏20 1.3.9煤炭储量变化不大，区域分布不均21 1.3.10煤炭生产、消费增速均减缓，2015年煤炭市场供大于求的矛盾缓解21 1.3.11煤炭价格自2012年开始下滑，煤炭贸易量稳步上升22 1.4中国能源发展概况23 1.4.1能源供应量保持增长态势，多因素致其增速减缓23 1.4.2化石能源仍占能源消费主要地位，清洁能源呈规模化发展23 1.4.3能源强度随经济增长呈下降趋势，相比发达国家仍较高26 1.4.4油气进口量平稳增长，对外依存度持续上升27 1.4.5传统能源价格普遍下降，新能源竞争力减弱28 1.4.6非化石能源发电装机容量发展迅速，但弃风弃光问题严重30 1.4.7机动车保有量增长空间巨大，高补贴推动新能源汽车爆发式增长31 1.4.8天然气是化石能源清洁利用的关键，其供给呈多元化快速发展32 1.4.9二氧化碳排放增速较快，碳减排压力增大33 1.5中国能源市场发展新变化与新格局34 1.5.1“十二五”规划节能目标实现，“十三五”规划总量控制压力减弱34 1.5.2应对全球气候变化，节能减排面临新挑战36 1.5.3经济进入新常态，能源供给侧改革受到重视37 1.5.4积极构建全球能源互联网，推动现代能源体系建设37 1.5.5电力天然气交易市场积极探索，新轮电力改革全面实施38 第2章 中国能源市场要素40 2.1中国能源市场生产者及其特点41 2.1.1能源市场供给以煤为主，清洁能源比例不断上升41 2.1.2不同能源市场集中度不同，同品种不同环节也不尽相同42 2.1.3能源市场不同环节准入门槛各异，供应链上游准入门槛较高44 2.1.4各种能源定价情况不尽相同，煤炭定价的市场化程度最高45 2.2中国能源市场消费者及其特点45 2.2.1宏观视角：政府影响较大，企业和居民用能结构有待提升45 2.2.2行业视角：工业能耗占比高，建筑、交通等行业能耗增速快48 2.3中国能源成本核算51 2.3.1中国能源成本核算存在的问题51 2.3.2成本核算的历史沿革及未来改进的方向51 2.3.3气、油、电等代表性能源产品的具体成本核算方法52 2.4中国能源定价机制54 2.4.1中国能源定价机制的历史变迁54 2.4.2中国能源定价机制的最新进展56 2.4.3中国能源定价机制的未来改革方向57 2.5中国能源市场效率与政府参与58 2.5.1政府“看得见的手”对能源市场效率的宏观调控58 2.5.2中国能源企业管理的改革方向：政企分开、职责明确58 2.5.3能源市场中的政府定位需要进步明晰和优化59 第3章 新常态下宏观政策对能源市场的影响60 3.1中国经济再平衡对能源市场的影响61 3.1.1新常态的内涵：中国经济中高速增长、结构转型61 3.1.2中国经济面临日益趋紧的资源环境约束61 3.1.3严控高碳行业增长，强调能源效率提高62 3.2人民币国际化对能源市场的影响64 3.2.1人民币国际化：内涵及进程64 3.2.2人民币贬值将减少煤炭进口，可能使中国成为煤炭净出口国67 3.2.3人民币汇率变化对中国石油进出口贸易影响的实证分析67 3.3利率市场化对能源市场的影响69 3.3.1利率作为货币政策工具对能源价格形成冲击70 3.3.2利率主要影响可再生能源的投资和中国企业海外投资70 3.3.3充分利用利率杠杆并促进能源市场发展71 3.4财税体制改革对能源市场的影响71 3.4.1财税政策有效支持能源市场发展71 3.4.2目前能源财税政策实施存在问题72 3.4.3完善财税体制改革并促进能源市场发展74 3.4.4资源税：应采取“小步走”的渐进式方案75 3.4.5征收环境税的利弊存在争议76 3.5新能源与可再生能源推广政策对能源市场的影响77 3.5.1新能源与可再生能源推广政策概述77 3.5.2可再生能源在建筑领域得到推广78 3.5.3发展新能源汽车产业日益受到重视79 3.6供给侧结构性改革对能源市场的影响80 3.6.1产能过剩是供给侧结构性改革的重要原因80 3.6.2供给侧结构性改革：提高供给质量和全要素生产率81 3.6.3基于“新供给经济学”的供给侧结构性改革从四个方面影响能源市场82 3.6.4“去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板”的特点及最新动向83 第4章 能源市场风险及防范85 4.1能源市场供需风险分析86 4.1.1宏观经济对能源市场的传导机制86 4.1.2能源需求风险87 4.1.3能源供给风险88 4.2全球资本市场对能源市场冲击及风险应对89 4.2.1金融危机对能源市场短期风险溢出效应显著89 4.2.2金融危机对能源供需影响效应持续93 4.3国际能源市场政策溢出风险94 4.3.1各国能源市场政策重点不但发展方向致94 4.3.2新能源政策力度大且市场份额逐渐提升96 4.3.3技术进步增大传统能源市场风险97 4.4防范能源市场风险应对措施99 4.4.1应对金融危机对能源市场影响的措施99 4.4.2应对能源政策溢出效应风险的措施99 第5章 中国能源期货市场：金融属性研究101 5.1中国能源期货市场发展现状102 5.1.1中国能源期货市场的发展历程102 5.1.2中国能源期货市场建设与主要品种103 5.1.3中国石油期货市场发展评述109 5.2中国能源期货市场发展趋势112 5.2.1原油期货上市交易存在不确定性112 5.2.2天然气期货旨在争夺定价权113 5.2.3“互联网+”助推中国能源期货发展114 5.3能源期货与能源现货市场中的价格发现116 5.3.1能源期货市场的价格发现功能概述116 5.3.2价格发现程度的评价方法118 5.3.3中国燃料油与石油沥青期货市场的价格发现功能评价119 5.3.4燃料油和石油沥青期现货市场具备价格发现功能121 5.4燃料油期货价格影响因素122 5.4.1政治与宏观经济因素影响价格走势122 5.4.2基本面因素支撑期货价格水平123 5.4.3市场交易因素主导期货价格波动124 5.5激发能源期货市场活力的措施126 5.5.1扩充能源期货品种来完善现货市场有效性126 5.5.2保障基本能源战略储备以维护能源期货市场价格机制127 5.5.3改进制度设计以促进市场活跃127 5.5.4完善交易所内部监控机制以切实降低交易风险128 5.5.5引入做市商制度来活化市场流动性128 5.5.6借助互联网金融平台推动能源产业转型创新128 5.6健全能源期货市场的市场监管模式129 5.6.1建立石油基金体系以增强风险管理机制129 5.6.2鼓励市场竞争以充分发挥现期货市场功能129 5.6.3降低期货交易门槛以完善市场准入制度129 第6章 跨区域能源贸易130 6.1中国能源资源禀赋的区域分布特征131 6.1.1煤炭资源呈“北富南贫，西多东少”的分布特征131 6.1.2电力资源呈“火电为主，水电为辅”的结构特征133 6.1.3油气资源呈“北多南少”的分布特征136 6.2中国能源的跨区域消费特点138 6.2.1煤炭消费呈“东多西少，北多南少”的特点138 6.2.2电力消费呈“东部为主，其他次之”的特点139 6.2.3石油消费呈“东部为主，产消不均衡”的特点141 6.2.4天然气消费呈“集中于部分省份，区域间不均衡”的特点142 6.3中国跨区域间的能源贸易144 6.3.1以“西煤东运、北煤南运”为主导的煤炭贸易144 6.3.2以“西电东送”为主导的电力贸易145 6.3.3以“北油南调、西油东输”为主导的石油贸易146 6.3.4以“西气东输”为主导的天然气贸易147 6.3.5针对跨区域间能源跨贸易的政策建议148 6.4能源的跨区域运输、交通网络与能源基础设施建设148 6.4.1能源的跨区域运输原因及现状149 6.4.2能源的跨区域运输和能源基础设施建设存在的问题150 6.4.3优化能源运输空间格局的建议151 6.5“带路”背景下的大区域能源市场间贸易结构及变化趋势152 6.5.1“带路”背景及主要能源区域152 6.5.2“带路”背景下主要能源区域间贸易结构152 6.5.3“带路”主要能源区域间贸易的新格局正在形成153 第7章 中国煤炭市场154 7.1我国煤炭市场供给特征155 7.1.1我国煤炭资源储量丰富但储采比偏低155 7.1.2煤炭在我国能源供应中居基础性地位且有增强趋势156 7.1.3我国煤炭供应主要集中于山西和内蒙古等九大省份157 7.2我国煤炭市场需求特征158 7.2.1我国煤炭需求占全球总需求的1/2以上158 7.2.2我国能源需求中煤炭占比持续在65%以上159 7.2.3我国煤炭需求集中于工业部门尤其是能源的加工转换部门159 7.2.4我国重工业发达省份成为煤炭需求的重点区域162 7.3我国煤炭市场供需平衡分析162 7.3.1国内煤炭市场需求疲软且投资下降162 7.3.2煤炭净进口代替净出口意味着国内煤炭产品竞争力下降163 7.3.3煤炭调出大省晋蒙陕与调入大省冀苏鲁形成对比165 7.3.42014年中国煤流图分析167 7.4煤炭价格市场化改革历程及影响因素分析169 7.4.1煤炭价格市场化改革历程169 7.4.2煤炭价格的影响因素分析170 7.4.3我国重要历史事件对煤炭价格的影响171 7.5中国煤炭市场发展面临的挑战及对策173 7.5.1中国煤炭产能严重过剩且煤炭价格低迷173 7.5.2煤炭资源与水资源分布格局相反制约煤炭生产175 7.5.3煤炭产业集中度低，煤矿分布范围广，煤炭产量管控机遇与挑战共存176 7.5.4我国煤矿安全问题仍然突出，煤炭安全生产工作需强化177 7.5.5煤炭生产对生态环境破坏严重，矿区环境治理有赖于提高煤炭资源开发利用效率178 7.5.6煤炭企业转产发展负担严重，政策引导力度需加强178 第8章 中国电力市场：从寡头格局到市场化改革179 8.1中国电力市场化改革正逐步推进180 8.1.1电力装机和发电量逐年增长，供需总体形势处于上涨状态180 8.1.2电力市场化经历了集资办电、政企分开、厂网分离等改革历程181 8.1.3电力市场化改革在结构优化、效率提升和节能减排方面效果显著182 8.2中国电力市场价格走势及影响因素分析183 8.2.1我国当前电价主要由上网电价、输配电价和销售电价三部分组成183 8.2.2未来电价的发展方向要有利于资源优化配置和能源效率提高184 8.2.3电价主要受成本、经济水平、技术进步等因素影响186 8.3国际电力市场基本特征研究188 8.3.1依据国情选择合理的市场模式188 8.3.2以电价作为电力市场改革的核心189 8.3.3构建跨区域电力市场促进资源优化配置190 8.3.4以安全、高效、清洁为目标191 8.3.5以需求侧作为市场调节的重要手段192 8.4我国电力市场改革的形势与要求192 8.4.1生态文明建设和应对气候变化任务繁重要求深化电力市场改革，促进清洁能源发展192 8.4.2区域发展和城乡发展不均衡要求深化电力市场改革，推动公共服务均等化193 8.4.3能源安全稳定供应矛盾突出要求深化电力市场改革，保障国家能源安全193 8.4.4电力行业自身发展要求深化电力市场改革，促进电力行业提质增效193 8.4.5国家大力实施“走出去”战略要求深化电力市场改革，提升能源企业国际竞争力193 8.5新轮中国电力市场改革思考194 8.5.1新轮电改中电力市场以“监管中间，放开两头”为主194 8.5.2电力体制改革的核心是电价194 8.5.3新轮电改中输配电价依然由政府管理196 8.5.4新轮电力市场化改革有利于促进新能源的发展196 8.6促进我国电力市场改革的政策建议197 8.6.1加强发电端改革，优化发电结构197 8.6.2加强输酡电改革，建设智能电网197 8.6.3建立科学的电价机制，促进资源优化布局197 8.6.4根据电力行业属性，建立与市场相适应的监管体系197 第9章 中国石油市场198 9.1我国石油市场发展现状199 9.1.1国际油价持续低迷199 9.1.2低油价时代下的中国石油产业200 9.1.3油改破题204 9.2我国石油贸易与石油安全205 9.2.1石油进口规模放缓205 9.2.2我国石油进口渠道相对多元化207 9.2.3海外石油投资风险显著增加208 9.2.4石油安全形势复杂209 9.3成品油定价机制改革210 9.3.1成品油价格逐步择机放开210 9.3.2成品油成本结构优化利于改革211 9.4石油行业改革正当时213 9.4.1“三大油企”主导石油产业链213 9.4.2油企混合所有制改革应注重各产业链环节的协调配合215 9.5石油市场改革相关政策建议217 9.5.1石油贸易与石油安全政策建议217 9.5.2成品油定价机制改革政策建议218 9.5.3油企混合所有制改革政策建议219 第10章 中国天然气市场：市场化改革破题221 10.1中国天然气市场需求现状与展望222 10.1.1天然气需求增速高位回落222 10.1.2天然气市场重心由内陆向沿海转移223 10.1.3天然气消费主要集中在工业部门224 10.1.4生态文明建设成为市场主要驱动力225 10.1.5国内天然气需求增长潜力巨大226 10.1.6替代煤炭是天然气主要发展方向227 10.2中国天然气供应能力分析229 10.2.1天然气供应能力快速提升229 10.2.2非常规天然气取得突破230 10.2.3煤制气发展面临环境制约231 10.2.4进口管道气供应潜力巨大231 10.2.5进口LN(J过剩问题开始显现232 10.3中国天然气价格机制234 10.3.1中国天然气价格改革历程漫长234 10.3.2中国天然气价格机制仍然扭曲238 10.3.3输配气缺乏监管导致费率偏高240 10.3.4净回值定价法仍需进步完善241 10.3.5天然气交易体系是发展的重点241 10.4中国天然气管网改革研究242 10.4.1输气自然垄断与配气行政垄断并存242 10.4.2输气管道建设运营的开放程度较高243 10.4.3天然气储运基础设施能力严重不足245 10.4.4政策不确定性制约天然气管网发展246 第11章 中国能源市场发展的机遇与挑战248 11.1能源市场现状249 11.1.1市场准入在放宽，促进更加平等开放的能源市场249 11.1.2从计划经济到市场经济，市场化改革在加深249 11.1.3电力行业应进步扩大消费者选择空间，提升各类企业定价自主权250 11.2能源市场化演进的历程和发展250 11.2.1改革正当时：让市场在能源供给领域逐步发挥主导作用250 11.2.2监管不可少：政府在能源市场化改革中寻找合理定位251 11.3中国能源市场发展的时代机遇251 11.3.1新能源汽车发展势头正猛，清洁能源投资发展势头良好251 11.3.2“互联网+”推进智慧能源发展，催生能源互联网新业态252 11.3.3“带路”背景下国际能源区域间贸易结构新格局正在形成，有利于倒逼运输网络优化252 11.4中国能源市场发展面临的挑战253 11.4.1能源市场发展需要适应经济“新常态”和发展新特点253 11.4.2日益趋紧的资源环境约束制约能耗增长253 11.4.3产能过剩和库存风险可能导致部分企业破产重组253 11.4.4能源进口依存度快速提升凸显能源安全供应矛盾254 11.5中国能源市场的发展监管254 11.5.1能源效率管理与合同能源管理应相互兼顾254 11.5.2能源监管架构需进步完善和提升255 参考文献256 附录1图目录269 附录2表目录273 后记283 Contents Preface Abbrev1at1ons Chapter1 Overv1ew of world and Ch1na energy development1 1.1 Rev1ew of world energy development 2 1.1.1 There1s a strong pos1t1ve correlat1on between econom1c development and energy consumpt1on The d1fference of energy elast1c1ty1n d1fferent per1od1s s1gn1f1cant 9 1.1.2 The pattern of energy consumpt1on1s1ncreas1ngly eff1c1ent and clean, and the proport1on of clean energy has1ncreased year by year 3 1.1.3As t1me chang1ng, energy1ntens1t1es for ma1n nat1ons have d1fferent trends.Among them Ch1na has the1argest drop 4 1.1.4The potent1al of energy resources1sn't gloomy, and there1s no s1gn1f1cant decl1ne1n reserveproduct1on rat1os of Oil and gas 5 1.1.5 Global energy Consumpt1on1ncrement mostly comes from develop1ng countr1es.More countr1es have reached the peak of energy consumpt1on 5 1.2 The new changes and new pattern1n the world 7 1.2.1 The growth rate of pr1mary energy consumpt1on has slowed down s1gn1f1cantly.Global energy demand w1ll cont1nue to grow1n next f1fteen years 7 1.2.2 The pr1ce of bulk1ndustr1al goods have decreased sharply s1nce 2014, among wh1ch Oil pr1ce has the1argest decl1ne 8 1.2.3 Prof1ts of upstream energy compan1es have substant1ally decreased Energy1nvestment and M& A bus1ness all decl1ne 9 1.2.4 Clean energy1nvestment h1t a new record aga1n, and clean energy enjoys a sound momentum1O 1.2.5 The Par1s Agreement was adopted The trans1t1on process of global clean energy accelerated1O 1.3 verv1ew of major1nternat1onal energy market1l 1.3.1 Oil reserves r1se stead1ly, and1ts reg1onal d1str1but1on1s extremely uneven1l 1.3.2 Oil demand and supply1ncrements structure has changed a1ot, and the Oil market has ser1ous oversupply11 1.3.3 0il pr1ces fell sharply s1nce the second half of 2014.and the Oil pr1ce may rema1n1ow1n the1ong term14 1.3.401l trade1ncrease stead1ly1n recent years, and the trade growth rate p1cked up1n 201515 1.3.5 The d1str1but1on of gas reserves1s more unbalanced ma1nly concentrated1n1ran Russ1a and Qatar15 1.3.6 The natural gas product1on and consumpt1on both have1ower growth rates than prev1ous years, and the As1aPac1f1c reg1on has the1argest growth rate17 1.3.7 The pr1ces of natural gas1n ma1n reg1ons have been d1fferent s1nce 2008.and pr1ces fell s1gn1f1cantly for the past two years19 1.3.8 Jas trade concentrated1n few countr1es, wh1ch recovered1n 2015 20 1.3.9 Coal reserves have11ttle change annually, and the reg1onal d1str1but1on of coal1s uneven 21 1.3.10 The coal product1on and consumpt1on growth rate have now slowed down and the contrad1ct1on of oversupply1s eased1n 2015 21 1.3.11 Coal pr1ces began to decl1ne s1nce 2012 and coal trade r1ses stead1ly 22 1.4 General s1tuat1on of Ch1na's energy development 23 1.4.1Energy supply ma1nta1ns an1ncreas1ng trend, but mult1ple factors cause the slowdown1n1ts growth rate 23 1.4.2 Foss1l energy dom1nates Ch1na's energy consumpt1on, wh1le clean energy show a1argescale development 25 1.4.3 Ch1na's energy1ntens1ty decreases w1th the econom1c growth, but st1ll h1gher than developed countr1es 26 1.4.401l and gas1mports1ncrease stead1ly, and the fore1gn-trade dependence1ncreases cont1nuously 27 1.4.5 Trad1t1onal energy pr1ces generally decl1ne, wh1ch weakens the compet1t1veness of new energy 28 1.4.6 The generat1on capac1ty of non-foss1l energy develop rap1dly,wh1le w1nd curta1lment and solar curta1lment are ser1ous 30 1.4.7 There1s spac1ous room for veh1cle populat1on's growth, and h1gh subs1d1es promote the explos1ve growth of new energy veh1cles 31 1.4.8Natural gas1s the key to the clean use of trad1t1onal energy, whose supply unfolds rap1d and d1vers1f1ed development 32 1.4.9 Carbon d1ox1de em1ss1ons1ncrease rap1dly, wh1ch place1ncreas1ng pressure oncarbon reduct1on 33 1.5 The new changes and pattern of energy development1n Ch1na 34 1.5.1 The12th F1veYear Plan's energy sav1ng target was bas1cally completed and pressures on the13th F1ve-Year Plan's goal st1ll ex1st 34 1.5.2 To address global cl1mate change, energy conservat1on and em1ss1on reduct1on1s fac1ng new challenges 36 1.5.3 Ch1na's economy enters the new normal stage, and energy supplys1de reform beg1ns to attract more attent1on 37 1.5.4Global Energy1nternet1s constructed act1vely, wh1ch w1ll promote the modern energy system construct1on 37 1.5.5 Electr1c1ty and gas markets are act1vely explored, and a new round of electr1c1ty reform1.s1n full1mplementat1on 38 Chapter2 The factors of Ch1na energy market 40 2.1 The producers of Ch1na energy market and the1r character1st1cs 41 2.1.1 Coal dom1nates energy market supply and proport1on of clean energy1s r1s1ng 41 2.1.2 Concentrat1on rat1os1n d1fferent energy markets are d1fferent and d1fferent11nks1n the same var1ety are not the same 42 2.1.3 Access thresholds for d1fferent11nks1n energy market are d1fferent and access threshold for the upstream of the supply cha1n1s h1gher 44 2.1.4The pr1c1ng strateg1es are not the same1n var1ous k1nds of energy,and the pr1c1ng of coal has the h1ghest degree of market1zat1on 45 2.2 Consumers1n Ch1na's energy market and the1r character1st1cs 45 2.2.1Macro perspect1ve: The government has a great1nfluence, and energy us1ng structure of enterpr1ses and res1dents needs to be1mproved 45 2.2.2 M1cro perspect1ve: proport1on of1ndustry energy consumpt1on1s1arge, and energy consumpt1on1ncreases1n construct1on and transportat1on 48 2.3 Ch1na's energy cost account1ng 51 2.3.1 Ch1na's energy cost account1ng ex1st some problems 51 2.3.2 H1stor1c evolut1on of co.st account1ng and the d1rect1on of future1mprovement 51 2.3.3The deta1led cost account1ng methods of some representat1ve energy products such as gas, Oil and electr1c1ty 52 2.4Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 54 2.4.1H1stor1cal changes of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 54 2.4.2 The1atest advances of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 56 2.4.3The reform d1rect1on of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm1n the future 57 2.5 Ch1na's energy market eff1c1ency and government1nvolvement 58 2.5.1Macroeconom1c regulat1on and control to energy market eff1c1ency by government's v1s1ble hands 58 2.5.2 The reform d1rect1on of Ch1na's energy enterpr1se management: Separat1on of enterpr1se from adm1n1strat1on and well-def1ned dut1es and respons1b1l1t1es 58 2.5.3 The or1entat1on of government1n energy market needs to be further clar1f1ed and opt1m1zed 59 Chapter 3 The1nfluence on energy market1n new normal macro pol1cy 60 3.1 The1nfluence of Ch1na's econom1c rebalanc1ng on energy market 61 3.1.1 The connotat1on of the new normal: H1gh speed econom1c growth1n Ch1na,structural transformat1on 61 3.1.2 Ch1na's economy1s fac1ng grow1ng tense constra1nts of resources and env1ronment 61 3.1.3 Control for the growth of h1gh-carbon1ndustry str1ctly, emphas1ze on1mprov1ng energy eff1c1ency1ndex 62 3.2 The1nfluence of RMB1nternat1onal1zat1on on the energy market 64 3.2.1RMB1nternat1onal1zat1on: Connotat1on and process64 3.2.2RMB devaluat1on w1ll reduce coal1mports, wh1ch may make Ch1na become a net exporter of coal 67 3.2.3 Emp1r1cal analys1s of the1mpact of RMB exchange rate change on Ch1na's Oil 1mport and export trade 67 3.3 The1nfluence of1nterest rate market1zat1on on energy markets 69 3.3.11nterest rate as a monetary pol1cy tool1mpacts on energy pr1ces 70 3.3.21nterest rate ma1nly affects the1nvestment of renewable energy and the overseas1nvestment of Ch1nese enterpr1ses 70 3.3.3 Make full use of1nterest rate1ever, promote the development of the energy market 71 3.4 The1nfluence of f1nanc1al and tax system reform on the energy market 71 3.4.1 F1scal and tax pol1c1es support the development of energy market effect1vely 71 3.4.2 Problems ex1st when f1scal and tax pol1c1es are put1nto pract1ce at present 72 3.4.3 0pt1m1ze f1nanc1al and tax system reform, promote the development of energy market 74 3.4.4 Resources tax: Step by step plan should be appl1ed 75 3.4.5 The pros and cons of1evy1ng env1ronment tax are controvers1al 76 3.5 The1nfluence of new energy and renewable energy promot1on pol1c1es effects on energy market 77 3.5.1 The overv1ew of new energy and renewable energy promot1on pol1c1es 77 3.5.2 Renewable energy1s general1zed1n arch1tecture f1eld 78 3.5.3 Develop1ng new energy automot1ve1ndustry gets more and more attent1on 79 3.6 The1nfluence of supply-s1de structural reform on energy market 80 3.6.1 Excess capac1ty1s an1mportant reason of supply-s1de structural reform 80 3.6.2 Supplys1de structural reform: Enhance the qual1ty of supply and total factor product1v1ty 81 3.6.3 Supplys1de structural reform1nfluences energy market from four aspects based on new supplys1de econom1cs 82 3.6.4The character1st1cs and1atest tendency of "de-capac1ty, destock1ng, de-leverage, cost-decreas1ng, weaknessrecover1ng 83 Chapter4 R1sk analys1s and r1sk management1n energy market 85 4.1 The analys1s of supply and demand r1sk1n energy market 86 4.1.1 The transm1ss1on mechan1sm of the macro economy to the energy market 86 4.1.2 The r1sk of energy demand 87 4.1.3 The r1sk of energy supply 88 4.2 The1mpact of the global cap1tal market on energy market 89 4.2.1 The r1sk sp1llover of f1nanc1al cr1s1s on energy market1n short run 89 4.2.2 The cont1nu1ng effect of f1nanc1al cr1s1s on energy supply and demand 93 4.3 The sp1llover effect of1nternat1onal energy market pol1cy r1sk 94 4.3.1 Var1ous pol1c1es w1th s1m1lar trend for countr1es 94 4.3.2 New energy pol1cy supports, market share1ncreases 96 4.3.3 Technolog1cal progress1ncreases the r1sk of the trad1t1onal energy market 97 4.4 Suggest1on for r1sk management1n energy market 99 4.4.1 R1sk Management of f1nanc1al cr1s1s sp1llover effect 99 4.4.2 R1sk Management of energy market pol1cy uncerta1nty 99 Chapter5 Ch1na's energy futures market: Research on1ts f1nanc1al attr1bute 1Ol 5.1 Development of Ch1na's energy futures market 102 5.1.1H1story of Ch1na's energy futures market 102 5.1.2 Var1et1es of Ch1na's energy futures 103 5.1.3 Rev1ew on Ch1na's Oil futures market 109 5.2 Trends of Ch1na's energy futures market 112 5.2.1The1n1t1al11st1ng of crude Oil futures1s unclear 112 5.2.2 Natural gas futures1s des1gned to compete for pr1c1ng power 113 5.2.3 "1nternet +" boosts the development of Ch1na energy futures 114 5.3Pr1ce d1scovery1n energy spot and futures market 116 5.3.1 0verv1ew of pr1ce d1scovery1n energy futures market 116 5.3.2 Measurement method of pr1ce d1scovery 118 5.3.3Assessment of pr1ce d1scovery1n Ch1na's fuel Oil and b1tumen markets 119 5.3.4Spot pr1ce performs the pr1ce d1scovery for both fuel Oil and b1tumen 121 5.4 Pr1ce factors of fuel Oil futures 122 5.4.1Pol1t1cal and macroeconom1c factors affect pr1ce trend 122 5.4.2 Fundamentals support futures pr1ce1evel 123 5.4.3 Market trad1ng dom1nates pr1ce fluctuat1ons 124 5.5 St1mulat1ve measures for the v1tal1ty of energy futures market 126 5.5.1 Extend energy futures var1et1es and1mprove the effect1veness of spot market 126 5.5.2 Ensure the energy strateg1c reserve and ma1nta1n pr1ce mechan1sm 127 5.5.31mprove system des1gn and promote an act1ve market 127 5.5.41mprove1nternal control mechan1sms and reduce transact1on r1sk 128 5.5.51ntroduce market maker and act1vate11qu1d1ty 128 5.5.6Promote1nnovat1on and transformat1on of energy1ndustry by1nternet f1nanc1al platform 128 5.6.1mproved regulat1on mode for energy futures marke 129 5.6.1Establ1sh Petroleum Fund system and enhance r1sk management mechan1sm 129 5.6.2 Encourage1ndustr1al compet1t1on and make the best of futures market 129 5.6.3 Reduce the threshold and1mprove market access system 129 Chapter 6 The reg1onal d1str1but1on character1st1cs of energy resource endowment1n Ch1na 130 6.1 Reg1onal d1str1but1on character1st1cs of Ch1na's energy resources endowment 131 6.1.1 The north r1ch south poor, west more east1ess d1str1but1on character1st1c ofcoal resources 131 6.1.2 The thermal power1s dom1nant, hydroelectr1c1s complementary structure 133 6.1.3 The north more south1ess d1str1but1on character1st1c of Oil and gas resources 136 6.2 The energy consumpt1on character1st1cs1n d1fferent reg1ons of Ch1na 138 6.2.1 The east w1th north prov1nces consume more and the west w1th south prov1nces consume1ess1n coal sector 138 6.2.2 The east prov1nces consume more and the other prov1nces consume1ess1n electr1c sector 139 6.2.3The east prov1nces consume more1n Oil sector 141 6.2.4Unbalance consumpt1on for each prov1nce1n natural gas sector 142 6.3 Cross-reg1onal energy trade of Ch1na 144 6.3.1 The transportat1on of coal are from west to east and from north to south 144 6.3.2 The transportat1on of electr1c1.s from west to east 145 6.3.3 The transportat1on of Oil are from north to south and from west to east 146 6.3.4The transportat1on of natural gas1s from west to east 147 6.3.5 The pol1cy recommendat1ons for cross-reg1onal energy trade 148 6.4 The pol1cy1mpl1cat1on for cross-reg1onal energy trade 148 6.4.1 The dr1v1ng force and current cond1t1on of cross-reg1onal transportat1on of energy 149 6.4.2 The problems of cross reg1onal transportat1on and1nfrastructure construct1on of energy 150 6.4.3 Suggest1on on opt1m1z1ng the spat1al pattern of energy transportat1on 151 6.5 Trade structure and var1at1on trend of energy markets between1arge areas under the background of 6the Belt and Road 152 6.5.1 The background of "the Belt and Road" and the ma1n energy areas 152 6.5.2 The trade structure of the ma1n energy areas under the background of the Belt and Road 152 6.5.3 New pattern of ma1n energy reg1on of trade structure1.s form1ng unde the Belt and Road 153 Chapter 7 The coal market1n Ch1na 154 7.1Character1st1cs of coal market supply1n Ch1na 155 7.1.1The reserves of coal1s r1ch wh1le the reserveproduct1on rat1o1s1ow 155 7.1.2 Coal plays a foundat1onal role1n the energy supply1n Ch1na w1th the trendstrength 156 7.1.3 The coal supply1n Ch1na concentrates1n 9 prov1nces such as Shanx1 and1nner Mongol1a 157 7.2 Character1st1cs of coal market requ1rement1n Ch1na 158 7.2.1 Coal requ1rement1n Ch1na accounts for more than a half of global aggregate coal requ1rement 158 7.2.2 Coal accounts for more than 65% of Ch1na's energy requ1rement 159 7.2.3 The coal requ1rement1n Ch1na concentrates on1ndustr1al sectors espec1ally1n energy process1ng and transform1ng 159 7.2.4Prov1nces w1th prosperous heavy1ndustry1n Ch1na come to be the key reg1onof coal requ1rement 162 7.3Analys1s of the balance of supply and demand of coal market1n Ch1na 162 7.3.1 The domest1c coal market requ1rement as well as the relevant1nvestment fall off 162 7.3.2 Replacement of the coal net export by the coal net1mport1mply the decl1ne of the domest1c coal product1on completeness 163 7.3.3Shanx1,1nner Mongol1a, Shaanx1 have the1argest amount of1nput wh1le Hebe1 J1angsu, Shandong have a1arger amount1n output 165 7.3.4Analys1s of the coal flow d1agram1n Ch1na1n 2014 167 7.4 The reform process1ng and1nfluent1al factors of the market1zat1on of the coal pr1ce 169 7.4.1 The reform process1ng of the market1zat1on of the coal pr1ce 169 7.4.2 Analys1s of the1nfluenc1al factors1n coal pr1ce 170 7.4.3 The1mpact of s1gn1f1cant events on coal pr1ce 171 7.5Challenges and strateg1es1n Ch1nese coal market 173 7.5.1 Ch1na has an excess capac1ty1n coal result1ng1n a1ow coal pr1ce 173 7.5.2 Due to the oppos1te spat1al d1str1but1on pattern between coal and water resource,the water resource ma\r constra1n the coal product1on 175 7.5.3 The management of coal product1on need further strength due to a1ow concentrat1on but w1despread coal1ndustry1n Ch1na 176 7.5.4The safety problems1n coal m1ne rema1n ser1ous and need further effort on safety coal product1on1n Ch1na 177 7.5.5 Coal product1on1eads a great damage on env1ronment the key to the env1ronmental governance11es1n the1mprovement1n resource development eff1c1ency 178 7.5.6The sh1ft for the coal enterpr1se may1ead to a heavy burden wh1ch may need a more strengthened gu1dance of pol1t1cs 178 Chapter 8 Ch1nese electr1c1ty market: From ol1gopoly structure to market-or1ented reform179 8.1 The market-or1ented reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market1s gradually advanc1ng 180 8.1.1 The1nstalled electr1c1ty capac1ty and output of electr1c1ty1ncrease year by year, and both the supply and demand take on a growth trend on the whole 180 8.1.2 To ach1eve electr1c1ty market1zat1on, fund1ng for power generat1on, separat1on of enterpr1se from adm1n1strat1on, and separat1on of plant and gr1d were undergone 181 8.1.3 Remarkable ach1evements of structure opt1m1zat1on eff1c1ency promot1on.energy conservat1on and em1ss1on reduct1on1n electr1c1ty market1zat1on reform were made 182 8.2 Analys1s on pr1ce trend1n Ch1nese electr1c1ty market and1nfluence factors 183 8.2.1 Presently, the electr1c1ty pr1ce1mplemented1n Ch1na ma1nly cons1sts of gr1d purchase pr1ce, transm1ss1on-d1str1but1on pr1ce and electr1c1ty sales pr1ce 183 8.2.21n future, the development of electr1c1ty pr1ce should be made to fac1l1tate opt1m1z1ng resource allocat1on and1mprov1ng energy eff1c1ency 184 8.2.3 Electr1c1ty pr1ce1s ma1nly1nfluenced by cost, econom1c1evel and techn1cal progress, etc 186 8.3 Research on bas1c character1st1cs of1nternat1onal electr1c1ty market 188 8.3.11t1s supposed to select an appropr1ate market model based on the nat1onal cond1t1ons 188 8.3.21mprove the electr1c1ty market by focus1ng on reformat1on of electr1c1ty pr1ce 189 8.3.3 Construct crossreg1onal electr1c1ty market to promote opt1mal allocat1on of resources 190 8.3.4Rregulate the market ma1nly v1a the demand s1de 191 8.3.5 To ach1eve energy safety, eff1c1ency, and clean energy 192 8.4 S1tuat1on of and requ1rements for reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market 192 8.4.1 The tough tasks of ecolog1cal c1v1l1zat1on construct1on and cop1ng w1th cl1mat1c change requ1re us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote clean energy development 192 8.4.2 The1mbalanced reg1onal development and econom1c1nequal1ty between urban and rural areas requ1re us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote equal1zat1on of publ1c serv1ce 193 8.4.3 The acute1mbalance between supply and demand of safe stable energy requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to safeguard nat1onal energy secur1ty 193 8.4.4The development of the electr1c1ty sector requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to1mprove qual1ty and eff1c1ency of the electr1c1ty sector 193 8.4.5 The strategy of stepp1ng out of the state requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote the1nternat1onal compet1t1veness of energy enterpr1ses 193 8.5Th1nk1ng on the new reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market194 8.5.11n the new reform, the1dea of regulat1ng the m1ddle, and deregulat1ng the two ends1s adhered 194 8.5.2 The core of the reformat1on of electr1c power system1s electr1c1ty pr1ce 194 8.5.3 Accord1ng to the new reform the transm1ss1on-d1str1but1on pr1ce1s st1ll under the control of the government 196 8.5.4The new electr1c1ty market1zat1on reform w1ll promote new energy development 196 8.6 Pol1cy suggest1ons1n favor of the reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market 197 8.6.1Strength reform at the end of electr1c1ty generat1on to opt1m1ze electr1c1ty generat1on structure 197 8.6.2 Strength reform of power transm1ss1on and d1str1but1on to construct a smart gr1d 197 8.6.3 Establ1sh a sc1ent1f1c electr1c1ty pr1c1ng mechan1sm, to promote opt1mal allocat1on of resources 197 8.6.4Establ1sh a superv1s1on system f1tt1ng w1th the market accord1ng to the attr1butes of the electr1c1ty sector197 Chapter 9 Ch1nese Oil market198 9.1The current s1tuat1on of Ch1nese Oil market 199 9.1.11nternat1onal Oil pr1ces rema1n1ow1eve l199 9.1.2 Ch1nese Oil1ndustr1es1n the per1od of1ow Oil pr1ce 200 9.1.3Reform of Oil1ndustry 204 9.2 01l trade and secur1ty1n Ch1na 205 9.2.111tter reduct1on of Oil1mports of Ch1na 205 9.2.2 D1vers1f1ed channels of Ch1nese Oil1mports 207 9.2.3 R1sks on overseas petroleum1nvestment1ncreases s1gn1f1cantly 208 9.2.4Complex s1tuat1on of petroleum secur1ty 209 9.3 Reform of ref1ned Oil pr1c1ng mechan1sm 210 9.3.1Marketor1ented reform of ref1ned Oil1s gradually 210 9.3.2 The market reform benef1t the ref1ned Oil cost structure 211 9.401l1ndustry reform1s at the t1me 213 9.4.1Dom1nant pos1t1on of three major compan1es1n Oil1ndustry cha1n 213 9.4.2 Coord1nat1on and cooperat1on among1ndustry cha1ns are1mportant for Oil enterpr1ses reform 215 9.5Pol1cy1mpl1cat1on for Oil market reform 217 9.5.1 Suggest1on for Oil trade and secur1ty 217 9.5.2 Suggest1on for the reform of ref1ned Oil pr1c1ng mechan1sm 218 9.5.3 Suggest1on for the reform of Oil compan1es' ownersh1p structure 219 Chapter10 Ch1na's natural gas market: Breakthrough of market1zat1on reform 221 1O.1 Status and forecast1ng of Ch1na's natural gas demand 222 10.1.1Growth rate of natural gas demand dropped cons1derably 227 10.1.2 Natural gas market moves from1nland to coastal areas 223 10.1.31ndustr1al sectors are the ma1n consumers 224 10.1.4Ecolog1cal c1v1l1zat1on construct1on becomes the ma1n dr1ven force 225 10.1.5 The domest1c natural gas demand1.s of great potent1al 226 10.1.6 The ma1n development d1rect1on1s to replace coal consumpt1on 227 10.2 Analys1s on Ch1na's natural gas supply capac1ty 229 10.2.1Natural gas supply capac1ty1ncreased rap1dly 229 10.2.2 Unconvent1onal gas development made a b1g progress 230 10.2.3 Synthet1c natural gas1s fac1ng the env1ronmental constra1nts 231 10.2.41mported p1pel1ne natural gas1s of huge potent1a 231 10.2.51mported1N(;1s oversuppl1ed 232 10.3 Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm 234 10.3.1 The h1story of Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm reform1ng1s1ong 234 10.3.2 Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm1s st1ll d1storted 238 10.3.3 Transm1ss1on and d1str1hut1on tar1ff1s too h1gh due to1ack of regulat1on 240 10.3.4 Net return value pr1c1ng needs to be mod1f1ed 241 10.3.5 Natural gas trad1ng system1s the key of market development 241 10.4 Stud1es on Ch1na's natural gas p1pel1nes 242 10.4.1Natural monopoly of transm1ss1on p1pel1nes coll1des w1th adm1n1strat1ve monopoly of d1str1but1on p1pel1nes 242 10.4.2 The construct1on and operat1on of transm1ss1on p1pel1nes are h1ghly open 243 10.4.3Natural gas transm1ss1on and storage capac1ty1s1nsuff1c1ent 245 10.4.4Uncerta1n pol1cy11m1ts the development of natural gas p1pel1nes 246 Chapter11 Development prospects of Ch1na's energy market: Opportun1t1es and challenges 248 11.1 The current s1tuat1on1n energy market 249 11.1.1Market access1s broaden1ng to promote more equal and open energy market 249 11.1.2 From planned economy to market economy; Market1zat1on reform1s deepen1ng 249 11.1.3 Electr1c1ty market should further broaden consumers' cho1ce space, and all k1nds of enterpr1ses could expand the pr1ce autonomy 250 11.2 The evolut1on process and development of energy market1zat1on 250 11.2.1 Reform1s gong1ng on:1et market play a1ead1ng role1n energy supply 250 11.2.2 Regulat1on1s necessary:1et government f1nd a reasonable pos1t1on1n energy market1zat1on reform 251 11.3 The opportun1t1es for Ch1na's energy market development 251 11.3.1 The development of new energy automob1les1s v1gorous, and the development of clean energy1nvestment1s pretty good 251 11.3.2 1nternet+ promotes smart energy development and breeds emerg1ng bus1ness of energy1nternet 252 11.3.3 A new trade structure pattern among1nternat1onal energy reg1ons under the background of "One Belt and One Road"1s emerg1ng, wh1ch forces the transportat1on network opt1m1zat1on advantageously 252 11.4 The challenges of Ch1na's energy market development 253 11.4.1The energy market must adapt to the "New Normal" and new development character1st1c 253 11.4.2 Env1ronmental and resource restr1ct1ons become t1ghter day by day, wh1ch restr1ct the1ncrease of energy consumpt1on 253 11.4.3Excess capac1ty and1nventory r1sk m1ght result1n some enterpr1ses' bankruptcy recomb1nat1on 253 11.4.4The rap1d growth of fore1gn-trade dependence h1ghl1ghts the contrad1ct1ons1n energy secur1ty supply 254 11.5 The regulat1on of Ch1na's energy market development 254 11.5.1 Balance the management of energy eff1c1ency and contract energy 254 11.5.2 Further1mprove and enhance the framework of energy regulat1on 255 References 256 Append1x1 F1gures 269 Append1x2 Tables 273 Ep1logue 283
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