目录 前言 第1章 绪论 1 1.1 研究目的和意义 1 1.2 国内外相关研究进展和展望 5 1.2.1 草原旱灾损失快速评估研究进展 5 1.2.2 草原雪灾损失快速评估研究进展 13 1.2.3 灾害链研究进展 18 1.2.4 草原旱灾、雪灾应急减灾与应急救助研究进展 25 1.2.5 国内外相关研究存在的问题 28 1.2.6 国内外相关研究展望 29 1.3 研究目标与研究内容 30 1.3.1 研究目标 30 1.3.2 研究内容 30 1.4 研究方法与研究技术路线 32 1.5 研究创新点 46 参考文献 47 第2章 草原旱灾损失快速评估研究 61 2.1 研究区域与数据来源 61 2.1.1 研究区域 61 2.1.2 数据来源 62 2.2 理论依据与研究方法 63 2.2.1 理论依据 63 2.2.2 研究方法 64 2.3 草原干旱灾害系统分析 69 2.3.1 孕灾环境 69 2.3.2 致灾因子 70 2.3.3 承灾体 74 2.4 草原干旱时空分布格局分析 75 2.4.1 松嫩草原干旱识别 75 2.4.2 松嫩草原干旱时空分布规律 76 2.5 草原NPP估算及其时空格局 80 2.5.1 CASA模型参数的求取与确定 80 2.5.2 松嫩草原NPP估算实现及精度验证 82 2.5.3 松嫩草原NPP时空分布特征 84 2.6 干旱灾害损失率曲线构建 87 2.6.1 基于CASA模型的干旱损失率曲线构建 87 2.6.2 基于野外实验的干旱损失率曲线构建 90 2.6.3 两种损失率曲线的对比分析 92 2.7 干旱灾害损失快速评估研究 93 2.7.1 松嫩草原干旱灾害对草地产量影响的损失快速评估 94 2.7.2 松嫩草原干旱灾害对草地载畜量影响的损失快速评估 98 参考文献 102 第3章 草原雪灾损失快速评估研究 104 3.1 研究区概况与数据来源 104 3.1.1 研究区概况 104 3.1.2 数据来源 105 3.2 理论依据与研究方法 106 3.2.1 理论依据 106 3.2.2 研究方法 108 3.3 草原雪灾致灾系统分析 109 3.3.1 孕灾环境子系统分析 109 3.3.2 致灾因子子系统分析 110 3.3.3 承灾体子系统分析 113 3.4 草原牧区积雪面积时空演变格局 117 3.4.1 积雪面积时间变化 120 3.4.2 积雪面积空间变化 120 3.5 基于FY-3B微波遥感数据的积雪深度反演研究 122 3.5.1 反演模型建立 122 3.5.2 模型反演精度验证 125 3.6 草原雪灾多承灾体损失率曲线建立 127 3.6.1 锡林郭勒地区草原主要承灾体雪灾损失率的计算 127 3.6.2 锡林郭勒地区不同承灾体草原雪灾损失率曲线的建立 128 3.7 草原牧区不同承灾体草原雪灾损失快速评估 129 3.7.1 锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾草场损失快速评估 130 3.7.2 锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾牲畜损失快速评估 130 3.7.3 锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾牲畜棚舍损失快速评估 131 3.7.4 锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾人口损失快速评估 131 3.7.5 锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾直接经济损失快速评估 132 参考文献 134 第4章 草原旱灾、雪灾社会影响评价研究 135 4.1 草原旱灾危险性时空演变特征分析 135 4.1.1 研究区域与研究方法 135 4.1.2 草原旱灾危险性时空演变特征 139 4.1.3 结论与讨论 145 4.2 草原雪灾时空演变分析 146 4.2.1 理论依据与研究方法 146 4.2.2 草原雪灾时空演变特征分析 149 4.2.3 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟草原雪灾灾情评价与区划 154 4.3 草原干旱-雪灾灾害链推理模型研究 163 4.3.1 研究方法与灾害链类型 163 4.3.2 草原干旱-雪灾灾害链推理模型的构建 166 4.3.3 草原干旱-雪灾灾害链推理模型的检验 168 4.3.4 锡林郭勒盟草原旱灾、雪灾综合区划 169 4.4 草原旱灾社会影响评价研究 171 4.4.1 草原旱灾社会影响机理分析 171 4.4.2 草原旱灾社会影响评价方法 172 4.4.3 基于SD模型的草原旱灾社会影响驱动机理分析 174 4.4.4 草原旱灾社会影响评价指标体系选取及模型构建 175 4.4.5 草原旱灾社会影响评价与区划 178 4.5 草原雪灾社会影响评价研究 179 4.5.1 草原雪灾社会影响机理分析 179 4.5.2 草原雪灾社会影响评价方法 180 4.5.3 草原雪灾社会影响评价指标体系与模型构建 181 4.5.4 草原雪灾社会影响评价与区划 183 参考文献 186 第5章 草原雪灾应急救助需求与能力评估研究 188 5.1 自然灾害应急救助理论 188 5.1.1 自然灾害应急救助基本概念 188 5.1.2 自然灾害应急救助特征 189 5.1.3 自然灾害应急救助评估内涵与内容 190 5.1.4 自然灾害应急救助的意义 191 5.1.5 自然灾害应急救助体系 192 5.1.6 自然灾害应急救助评估 193 5.2 草原雪灾应急救助能力研究 198 5.2.1 草原雪灾应急救助能力评价方法 198 5.2.2 草原雪灾应急救助能力评价指标体系与模型构建 199 5.2.3 草原雪灾应急救助能力评价结果分析 203 5.3 草原雪灾应急救助需求研究 209 5.3.1 草原雪灾应急救助需求研究方法 210 5.3.2 草原雪灾应急救助需求模型的构建 212 5.3.3 草原雪灾应急救助需求结果分析 216 参考文献 219 第6章 草原雪灾应急救助物资库及避难所优化布局研究 221 6.1 草原雪灾风险评价与区划研究 221 6.1.1 研究区域与数据来源 221 6.1.2 理论依据与研究方法 223 6.1.3 草原雪灾风险因素辨识 225 6.1.4 草原雪灾风险评价指标体系与模型的建立 227 6.1.5 基于行政尺度与格网尺度的草原雪灾风险评价 229 6.2 草原雪灾应急物资库优化布局研究 238 6.2.1 草原雪灾物资库布局影响因子分析 238 6.2.2 草原雪灾物资库优化布局与服务区划分 242 6.3 社区应急避难所优化布局技术研究 246 6.3.1 社区应急避难场所区位选址模型构建 247 6.3.2 实证案例 249 6.4 区级应急避难所优化布局研究 251 6.4.1 应急避难所选址影响因素分析 251 6.4.2 应急避难所优化布局原则 252 6.4.3 避难所选址适宜性分析 253 6.4.4 避难所优化布局模型构建及应用 255 参考文献 257 第7章 草原旱灾、雪灾应急救助管理系统构建与决策研究 259 7.1 北方牧区草原旱灾、雪灾应急救助技术整体框架与技术平台构建 259 7.1.1 基于“3S”技术的草原牧区旱灾损失快速评估系统概念框架的构建 259 7.1.2 北方牧区草原旱灾、雪灾应急救助可视化系统 262 7.1.3 北方牧区草原干旱识别与损失评估可视化系统 265 7.1.4 北方牧区草原雪灾损失快速评估可视化系统 270 7.1.5 北方牧区草原雪灾应急物资库优化布局系统 275 7.1.6 北方牧区草原雪灾应急避难所优化布局系统 280 7.2 北方牧区草原旱灾、雪灾管理及防御对策研究 286 7.2.1 草原干旱灾害风险管理技术对策 286 7.2.2 草原雪灾损失防御对策研究 293 参考文献 296 彩图 Contents Foreword Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose and significance of the study 1 1.2 Research progress and prospect at home and abroad 5 1.2.1 Research progress on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss 5 1.2.2 Research progress on rapid evaluation of grassland snow disaster loss 13 1.2.3 Research progress of disaster chain 18 1.2.4 Research progress on the mitigation and relief of grassland drought and snow disaster 25 1.2.5 The problems of the related researches at home and abroad 28 1.2.6 The prospect of the related researches 29 1.3 Study objectives and contents 30 1.3.1 Study objectives 30 1.3.2 Study contents 30 1.4 Study methods and technical route 32 1.5 The innovation of the study 46 References 47 Chapter 2 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss 61 2.1 Study area and data sources 61 2.1.1 Study area 61 2.1.2 Data sources 62 2.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 63 2.2.1 Theoretical basis 63 2.2.2 Research methods 64 2.3 Analysis of the system of grassland drought disaster 69 2.3.1 Hazard-formative environment 69 2.3.2 Hazard factors 70？？ 2.3.3 Hazard-bearing body 74 2.4 Temporary and spatial patterns of grassland drought 75 2.4.1 Identification of grassland drought in the Songnen grassland 75 2.4.2 Temporary and spatial variations of grassland drought in the Songnen grassland 76 2.5 Estimation of grassland Net Primary Product (NPP) and its temporal and spatial variations 80 2.5.1 Calculation and determination of the parameters in the CASA model 80 2.5.2 Achievement and verification of NPP estimation in the Songnen grassland 82 2.5.3 Temporary and spatial variations of NPP in the Songnen grassland 84 2.6 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster 87 2.6.1 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster based on CASA model 87 2.6.2 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster based on field experiment 90 2.6.3 Comparative analysis of the two loss rate curves 92 2.7 Research on rapid evaluation of drought disaster loss 93 2.7.1 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss of grassland yield 94 2.7.2 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss of carrying capacity 98 References 102 Chapter 3 Study on rapid evaluation of grassland snow disaster loss 104 3.1 Study area and data sources 104 3.1.1 Study area 104 3.1.2 Data sources 105 3.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 106 3.2.1 Theoretical basis 106 3.2.2 Research methods 108 3.3 Analysis of grassland snow disaster system 109 3.3.1 Analysis of hazard-formative environment subsystem 109？？ 3.3.2 Analysis of hazard-factor subsystem 110 3.3.3 Analysis of hazard-affected bodies′subsystem 113 3.4 Temporal and spatial situation change of grassland snow cover 117 3.4.1 Temporal situation change of snow cover 120 3.4.2 Spatial situation change of snow cover 120 3.5 Snow depth retrieval based on FY-3B microwave remote sensing data 122 3.5.1 Snow depth retrieval model 122 3.5.2 Model retrieval accuracy test 125 3.6 Loss curves of multiple hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster 127 3.6.1 Loss rate calculation of main hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 127 3.6.2 Loss curves of different hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 128 3.7 rapid evaluation of different hazard-affected bodies loss of grassland snow disaster 129 3.7.1 Rapid evaluation of grassland loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 130 3.7.2 Rapid evaluation of livestock loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 130 3.7.3 Rapid evaluation of canopies loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 131 3.7.4 Rapid evaluation of population loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 131 3.7.5 Rapid evaluation of direct economic loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 132 References 134 Chapter 4 Study on social impact assessment of grassland drought and snow disaster 135 4.1 Spatial and temporal evolution of drought hazards in grassland 135 4.1.1 Study area and research methods 135 4.1.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of drought hazards in grassland 139 4.1.3 Conclusion and discussion 145？？ 4.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of snow disaster in grassland 146 4.2.1 Theoretical basis and research methods 146 4.2.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of grassland snow disaster 149 4.2.3 Grassland snow disaster assessment and zoning of Xilingol League 154 4.3 Research on reasoning model of grassland drought-snow disaster 163 4.3.1 Research methods and disaster chain types 163 4.3.2 Construction of grassland drought-snow disaster reasoning model 166 4.3.3 Test of grassland drought-snow disaster reasoning model 168 4.3.4 Grassland drought-snow disaster comprehensive zoning of Xilinguol League 169 4.4 Study on social impact assessment of grassland drought disaster 171 4.4.1 Mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 171 4.4.2 The assessment methods of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 172 4.4.3 The driving mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland drought disaster based on System Dynamic model 174 4.4.4 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 175 4.4.5 Grassland drought disaster social impact assessment and zoning 178 4.5 Study on social impact assessment of grassland snow disaster 179 4.5.1 Mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 179 4.5.2 The assessment methods of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 180 4.5.3 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 181 4.5.4 Grassland snow disaster social impact assessment and zoning 183 References 186 Chapter 5 Research on evaluation of emergency rescue demand and capability of grassland snow disaster 188？？ 5.1 Theory of natural disaster emergency rescue 188 5.1.1 Basic conception of natural disaster emergency rescue 188 5.1.2 Features of natural disaster emergency rescue 189 5.1.3 Connotation and content of natural disaster emergency rescue 190 5.1.4 Significance of natural disaster emergency rescue 191 5.1.5 System of natural disaster emergency rescue 192 5.1.6 Evaluation of natural disaster emergency rescue 193 5.2 Research on the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 198 5.2.1 Evaluation methods of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 198 5.2.2 Evaluation index system and construction the model of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 199 5.2.3 Results of evaluation of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 203 5.3 Research on the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 209 5.3.1 Methods of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 210 5.3.2 Construction of the model of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 212 5.3.3 Results of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 216 References 219 Chapter 6 Study on emergency rescue material storage and haven layout optimization of grassland snow disaster 221 6.1 Study on risk assessment and regionalization of grassland snow disaster 221 6.1.1 Study area and data sources 221 6.1.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 223 6.1.3 Risk factor identification of grassland snow disaster 225 6.1.4 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the grassland snow disaster risk 227 6.1.5 Grassland snow disaster risk assessment based on administrative？？ district and grid level 229 6.2 Study on emergency rescue material storage layout optimization of grassland snow disaster 238 6.2.1 Analysis of influencing factors on the distribution of grassland snow disaster material storage 238 6.2.2 Material storage layout optimization and service area division of grassland snow disaster 242 6.3 Study on layout optimization of community emergency haven 246 6.3.1 Location model of community emergency haven 247 6.3.2 Empirical case 249 6.4 Study on optimal layout of emergency haven in district level 251 6.4.1 Analysis of influencing factors on the location of emergency haven 251 6.4.2 The principle of layout optimization of emergency haven 252 6.4.3 Suitability analysis of haven location 253 6.4.4 Construction and application of the optimal layout model of haven 255 References 257 Chapter 7 Study on construction and decision-making of grassland drought and snow rescue emergency rescue management system 259 7.1 Construction of the overall framework and technology platform of grassland drought and snow disaster emergency rescue technology in northern pastoral area 259 7.1.1 Construction of conceptual framework for rapid assessment system of drought loss in grassland pasture based on“3S”technology 259 7.1.2 Visualization system of grassland drought and snowstorm emergency rescue in northern pastoral area 262 7.1.3 Visualization system of grassland drought identification and loss assessment in northern pastoral area 265 7.1.4 Visualization system of grassland snow disaster quick evaluation loss in northern pastoral area 270 7.1.5 Optimal layout system of grassland snow disaster emergency materials in northern pastoral area 275？？ 7.1.6 Optimal layout system of grassland snowstorm emergency shelter in northern pastoral area 280 7.2 Study on grassland drought？ snow disaster management and defense countermeasures in northern pastoral area 286 7.2.1 Technical measures for grassland drought disaster risk management 286 7.2.2 Study on the countermeasures of grassland snow disaster 293 References 296 Color picture
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