目录 前言 缩写和缩略语 第1章 世界能源形势与中国能源安全的回顾 1 1.1 世界能源发展回顾 2 1.1.1 全球化石能源储量仍较丰富但分布不均 2 1.1.2 全球一次能源消费创历史新高 5 1.1.3 全球可再生能源生产与消费稳步增长 7 1.1.4 中东北非动荡与欧债危机致国际原油价格大幅波动 8 1.2 世界能源发展新趋势 9 1.2.1 未来世界能源需求量仍将继续增加 9 1.2.2 全球金融危机给清洁可再生能源发展提供了新契机 9 1.2.3 福岛核事故改变世界核能发展规划 11 1.2.4 页岩气撼动全球天然气格局 13 1.2.5 世界能源消费结构呈现清洁低碳化趋势 14 1.2.6 世界各国一次能源消费结构存在较大差异 16 1.3 世界能源贸易特征分析 18 1.3.1 世界石油贸易特点 18 1.3.2 世界天然气贸易特点 19 1.3.3 世界煤炭贸易特点 20 1.4 中国能源消费特点与中国能源安全 20 1.4.1 中国能源消费的特点 20 1.4.2 中国能源安全的历史 25 1.4.3 中国能源安全的现状 27 1.5 能源安全的解读与认识 28 1.5.1 能源安全的定义 28 1.5.2 能源安全的内涵及演变 29 1.6 本章小结 31 第2章 世界能源地缘政治发展与中国能源外交 32 2.1 世界能源地缘政治关系演进 33 2.1.1 英美争霸中东 33 2.1.2 IEA与OPEC的对抗 36 2.2 世界能源地缘政治新格局 38 2.2.1 寻求石油霸权的美国 39 2.2.2 擅打“能源牌暠的俄罗斯 39 2.2.3 矛盾中的欧盟和日本 40 2.2.4 不断崛起的新兴国家 40 2.2.5 持续遭受冲击的OPEC 41 2.3 五大产油区的地缘政治格局 41 2.3.1 中亚俄罗斯地区的地缘政治格局 41 2.3.2 中东地区的地缘政治格局 43 2.3.3 非洲地区的地缘政治格局 44 2.3.4 拉美地区的地缘政治格局 46 2.3.5 亚太地区的地缘政治格局 47 2.4 中国能源角色的转变 48 2.4.1 由贫油国向石油出口国的转变 48 2.4.2 由石油出口国向石油进口国的转变 49 2.5 中国的能源外交 49 2.5.1 中国在中亚俄罗斯地区的能源外交 50 2.5.2 中国在中东地区的能源外交 51 2.5.3 中国在非洲地区的能源外交 52 2.5.4 中国在拉美地区的能源外交 53 2.5.5 中国在亚太地区的能源外交 53 2.6 本章小结 55 第3章 石油价格与能源安全 56 3.1 世界石油价格体系及其演变 57 3.1.1 世界石油价格体系的构成 57 3.1.2 石油价格体系的演变 57 3.2 国际油价波动特征及其影响分析 60 3.2.1 油价波动特征 60 3.2.2 油价波动主要影响因素 64 3.2.3 油价波动对经济与金融的影响 65 3.3 石油金融化发展及其风险分析 75 3.3.1 石油金融化发展的意义 75 3.3.2 石油金融化发展蕴含的风险 77 3.3.3 石油期货市场投机与价格波动 78 3.4 石油价格与中国的能源安全 79 3.4.1 石油定价机制与中国能源安全 79 3.4.2 油价引发的能源安全与粮食安全矛盾 82 3.4.3 未来油价走势与中国能源安全 84 3.5 本章小结 87 第4章 中国能源进口与运输风险评价 88 4.1 中国主要能源贸易通道的运输风险分析 89 4.1.1 中国能源贸易的主要运输通道 89 4.1.2 石油海洋运输面临的主要风险分析 92 4.1.3 中国降低能源贸易运输风险的策略 94 4.2 中国石油进口综合风险的比较分析 96 4.2.1 中国原油和成品油贸易差异 96 4.2.2 石油进口的投资组合风险评价模型 98 4.2.3 中国原油和成品油进口的特定风险比较 99 4.2.4 中国石油进口的系统风险比较 102 4.2.5 主要结论 106 4.3 中美原油进口风险的比较分析 106 4.3.1 中美原油进口现状及对外依存度 106 4.3.2 中美原油进口来源和多元化差异 107 4.3.3 中美原油进口的策略差异 110 4.3.4 中美原油进口策略的比较 114 4.3.5 主要结论 115 4.4 中国煤炭贸易及运输风险分析 115 4.4.1 煤炭贸易的历史与现状 115 4.4.2 煤炭贸易与运输风险分析 116 4.5 中国天然气贸易与运输风险分析 118 4.5.1 天然气供需现状分析 118 4.5.2 天然气贸易与运输风险 119 4.6 本章小结 122 第5章 中国能源储备策略研究 123 5.1 全球能源储备现状及特点 124 5.1.1 全球能源储备历史与现状 124 5.1.2 美国战略石油储备特点及策略 126 5.2 中国战略石油储备的最佳补仓时机和补仓策略 128 5.2.1 我国战略石油储备规划 128 5.2.2 我国战略石油储备的不确定动态规划模型 130 5.2.3 我国战略石油储备的最佳补仓时机和策略 132 5.3 突发事件下我国战略石油储备的最优释放策略 136 5.3.1 战略石油储备策略的动态规划模型 136 5.3.2 不同突发事件对国际油价的冲击 140 5.3.3 不同突发事件情景下我国战略石油储备的最优策略 142 5.3.4 我国战略石油储备补仓和释放对国际油价的影响 144 5.3.5 我国成品油储备策略 145 5.4 中国天然气储备策略 147 5.4.1 世界典型国家的天然气储备模式及特点 147 5.4.2 我国天然气储备的现状及策略 148 5.5 中国煤炭储备策略 150 5.5.1 煤炭储备的现状 150 5.5.2 煤炭储备策略建议 152 5.6 本章小结 152 第6章 保障能源安全下的重点节能行业和地区 154 6.1 引言 155 6.2 研究思路和数据说明 156 6.3 重点节能行业和地区 159 6.3.1 农业重点节能地区 159 6.3.2 工业重点节能行业和地区 159 6.3.3 建筑业用能 161 6.3.4 第三产业重点节能行业和地区 161 6.3.5 居民生活用能 163 6.4 结论与政策启示 164 第7章 清洁和可再生能源对国家能源安全的作用 166 7.1 世界清洁和可再生能源对化石能源的替代作用 167 7.1.1 清洁和可再生能源增长迅速 167 7.1.2 未来清洁和可再生能源比重将继续增加 170 7.2 中国清洁和可再生能源对化石能源的替代作用 170 7.2.1 中国清洁和可再生能源发展迅速 170 7.2.2 中国水能资源丰富 172 7.2.3 中国核电2020年有望占电力总装机的4%~5% 172 7.2.4 中国风电发展迅速 173 7.2.5 中国太阳能利用前景广阔 174 7.2.6 生物质能发展现状与潜力 175 7.3 清洁和可再生能源发展政策的国际比较 176 7.3.1 目标引导 176 7.3.2 政策激励 176 7.3.3 产业扶持 177 7.3.4 资金支持 177 7.4 本章小结 178 第8章 能源贫困与能源使用安全 179 8.1 能源贫困与能源使用安全的关系 180 8.1.1 能源贫困及其国际现状 180 8.1.2 我国能源贫困现状 181 8.2 能源贫困的主要影响因素研究 186 8.2.1 影响因素分析 186 8.2.2 方法介绍 190 8.2.3 模型结果与分析 191 8.3 中国区域能源贫困评估 192 8.3.1 发展中国家能源发展指数 192 8.3.2 中国区域能源贫困指数 193 8.3.3 主要结论 196 8.4 本章小结 197 第9章 中国能源消费与公众健康 198 9.1 能源消费对环境和公众健康的影响综述 199 9.1.1 能源消费对环境影响综述 199 9.1.2 环境污染造成公众健康效应研究综述 200 9.1.3 区域污染与行业排放造成公众健康效应综述 200 9.2 城市大气污染与公众健康效应的经济评估 201 9.2.1 研究背景 201 9.2.2 健康效应经济评估方法及数据来源 202 9.2.3 城市大气污染物健康效应及其经济损失 204 9.2.4 情景分析 207 9.3 部门污染物排放对公众健康效应的经济评估 208 9.3.1 部门污染物排放对公众健康评估方法及数据来源 208 9.3.2 部门排放的健康效应和经济损失评估 212 9.3.3 部门边际健康效应的经济损失评估 214 9.3.4 能源边际健康效应的经济损失评估 216 9.3.5 情景分析 216 9.4 主要结论与建议 218 第10章 能源供应危机与经济安全研究 220 10.1 世界能源危机的历史及影响分析 221 10.1.1 世界能源危机历史回顾 221 10.1.2 石油危机对世界宏观经济的影响分析 222 10.2 中国能源供应短缺事件分析 226 10.2.1 近年来中国能源供应短缺的典型事件 226 10.2.2 中国能源供应短缺的影响因素分析 227 10.3 原油供应中断的社会经济影响研究 229 10.3.1 原油供应中断情景设置 229 10.3.2 原油供应中断对中国的社会经济影响 229 10.4 国际原油价格上涨的社会经济影响研究 234 10.4.1 国际原油价格上涨情景设置 234 10.4.2 国际原油价格上涨对中国的社会经济影响 234 10.5 成品油供应短缺的应急预案研究 240 10.5.1 我国成品油供应体系 240 10.5.2 模型设置 244 10.5.3 应对成品油供应短缺的不同应急预案效果比较 246 10.6 本章小结 247 第11章 国家能源安全的综合评价 249 11.1 典型国家能源安全政策比较 250 11.1.1 增加能源科技投入,千方百计实现能源技术突破 251 11.1.2 实施能源进口贸易的多元化策略,分散能源进口风险 252 11.1.3 各能源进口国大力发展战略储备,提高能源应急能力 253 11.1.4 优化能源消费结构,鼓励发展清洁可再生能源 254 11.1.5 重视能源地缘政治,开展多元化的能源外交与合作 256 11.1.6 建立高效的能源安全管理机构,制定能源应急法律法规 257 11.2 能源安全综合评价体系与方法 258 11.2.1 能源安全综合评价指标体系 258 11.2.2 能源安全综合评价模型 259 11.3 典型国家能源供应安全的比较 261 11.3.1 典型发达国家能源供应安全指数总体呈波动上升趋势 261 11.3.2 典型发展中国家能源供应安全指数总体呈下降趋势 265 11.3.3 2008年全球金融危机后,多数国家能源供应安全指数大幅提高 267 11.3.4 主要结论 267 11.4 气候变化背景下中国能源安全的综合评价 268 11.4.1 气候变化对我国能源安全政策的影响 268 11.4.2 数据来源及预处理 269 11.4.3 我国能源供应安全指数呈先升后降的趋势 270 11.4.4 我国能源使用安全指数呈波动上升的趋势 272 11.4.5 气候保护与我国能源安全 273 11.4.6 主要结论 274 11.5 本章小结 275 第12章 中国能源安全的挑战与展望 276 12.1 中国能源安全面临的挑战 277 12.1.1 能源消费量快速增长的挑战 277 12.1.2 能源安全影响因素多样化的挑战 277 12.1.3 单一安全向多元安全转变的挑战 278 12.1.4 全球气候变化带来的挑战 278 12.1.5 环境治理与保护的挑战 279 12.1.6 能源消费总量控制的挑战 279 12.2 中国能源供需展望(到2020年) 280 12.2.1 能源需求增速逐渐回落,但回落幅度存在较多不确定性 280 12.2.2 煤炭消费比重缓慢下降,天然气和可再生能源比重陆续提高 281 12.2.3 原油煤炭产量增长日趋减缓,清洁低碳能源总体发展较快 281 12.2.4 国内能源生产重心继续西移,大规模、长距离能源调运带来新的安全和管理挑战 282 12.2.5 煤炭、石油、天然气净进口量将持续位居全球首位或者第二位,天然气价改日趋紧迫 282 12.3 中国能源安全展望 283 12.3.1 能源进口量持续增长,能源对外依存度继续攀升 283 12.3.2 能源运输通道实现多元化,运输风险逐步降低 283 12.3.3 国家能源储备规模庞大,能源储备体系相对完善 284 12.3.4 能源市场化改革继续深入,价格体系逐步完善 285 12.3.5 能源贫困人口快速下降,彻底消除能源贫困任重而道远 285 12.4 保障我国能源安全的对策建议 286 12.4.1 完善储运-市场-合作体系,构筑国家能源安全框架 286 12.4.2 优化产业结构,实现低碳化发展路径 287 12.4.3 实现能源进口的多元化,降低进口运输风险 287 12.4.4 运用财政税收手段,实现可再生能源产业化 287 12.4.5 加强规划与宏观调控,满足能源投资需求 287 12.4.6 构筑能源安全预警体系,保障能源供应安全 288 参考文献 289 Contents Preface Abbreviations Chapter 1 Review of world energy situation and China's energy security 1 1.1 Review of world energy development 2 1.1.1 Globalfossil energy reserves are still rich but unevenly distributed 2 1.1.2 Globalprimary energy consumption hit new heights 5 1.1.3 Globalrenewable energy production and consumption steadily grow 7 1.1.4 Crudeoil price fluctuate significantly because of Middle East and NorthAfrica turbulence and European debt crisis 8 1.2 Trends of world energy development 9 1.2.1 World energy demandwill continue to increaseinfuture 9 1.2.2 Global financial crisispromoted the clean andrenewable energy 9 1.2.3 Fukushima nuclear accident changed the world nuclear energy development 11 1.2.4 Shale gas challenges global land scape of natural gas 13 1.2.5 The world's energy consumption structure tends to beclean and low-carbon 14 1.2.6 Great difference exists in primary energy consumptionstructure across countries 16 1.3 Analysis of characteristicsoftheworldenergytrade 18 1.3.1 Characteristics of theworld oil trade 18 1.3.2 Characteristics of theworld natural gas trade 19 1.3.3 Characteristics of theworld coal trade 20 1.4 Characteristics of China's energy consumption and China's energy security 20 1.4.1 Characteristics of China's energy consumption 20 1.4.2 History of China's energy security 25 1.4.3 Current status of China's energy security 27 1.5 Interpretation and understandingofenergysecurity 28 1.5.1 Definition of energy security 28 1.5.2 Content of energy security and its evolution 29 1.6 Chapter summary 31 Chapter 2 Geo-political development of world energy and China，s energy diplomacy 32 2.1 The evolution of the world's energy geo-political relationship 33 2.1.1 Struggling for hegemony in MiddleEastbetweentheU.S.and the UK 33 2.1.2 Rivalry between IEA and OPEC 36 2.2 New situation of the world's energy geo-politicalrelationship 38 2.2.1 The U.S.searchs for oil hegemony 39 2.2.2 Russia performs well in energy diplomacy 39 2.2.3 EU and Japan are still in contradiction 40 2.2.4 Emerging countries continue to grow up 40 2.2.5 OPEC suffers constantly 41 2.3 Geo-political situation of the five major oil-producin gregions 41 2.3.1 Geo-political situation of Central Asia and Russia 41 2.3.2 Geo-political situation of Middle East 43 2.3.3 Geo-political situation of Africa 44 2.3.4 Geo-political situation of Latin America 46 2.3.5 Geo-political situation of Asia-Pacific 47 2.4 Changes of China's role in energy 48 2.4.1 From an oil-poor country to an oil-exporting country 48 2.4.2 From an oil-exporting country to an oil-importing country 49 2.5 China's energy diplomacy 49 2.5.1 China's energy diplomacy in Central Asia and Russia 50 2.5.2 China's energy diplomacy in Middle East 51 2.5.3 China's energy diplomacy in Africa 52 2.5.4 China's energy diplomacy in Latin America 53 2.5.5 China's energy diplomacy in Asia-Pacific 53 2.6 Chapter summary 55 Chapter 3 Oil price and energy security 56 3.1 World oil price system and its evolution 57 3.1.1 Composition of the world oil price system 57 3.1.2 Evolution of the world oil price system 57 3.2 Characteristics of world oil price volatility and its impact 60 3.2.1 Characteristics of oil price volatility 60 3.2.2 Main factors impacting oil price volatility 64 3.2.3 Impact of oil price volatility on economy and finance 65 3.3 Oil financialization and its risk analysis 75 3.3.1 The significance of oil financialization 75 3.3.2 Inherent risks of the oil financialization 77 3.3.3 Speculations and price volatility in oil futures markets 78 3.4 Oil price and China's energy security 79 3.4.1 Oil pricing mechanism and China's energy security 79 3.4.2 Contradiction between energy security and food security caused by high oil price 82 3.4.3 Future trends of oil price and China's energy security 84 3.5 Chapter summary 87 Chapter 4 China's energy import and its transport risk assessment 88 4.1 Transportation risk analysis of China's major energy trade channel 89 4.1.1 Major transport channels of China's energy trade 89 4.1.2 Main risks of oil marine transportation 92 4.1.3 Strategy of reducing the transportation risks for China's energy trade 94 4.2 Comparative analysis of the rntegrated risk of China's oil imports 96 4.2.1 Difference between China's crude oil and refined oil trade 96 4.2.2 Oil import portfolio risk evaluation model 98 4.2.3 Specific risks comparison of China's crude oii and refined oii imports 99 4.2.4 Systemic risks comparison of China's oii imports 102 4.2.5 Conclusions 106 4.3 Risks comparison of crude oii imports between China and U.S 106 4.3.1 Status and dependency in crude oii imports of China and U.S 106 4.3.2 Differences in crude oii importing sources and diversification between China and U.S 107 4.3.3 Difference in crude oii importing strategies between China and U.S 110 4.3.4 Comparison of crude oii importing strategies of China and U.S 114 4.3.5 Conclusions 115 4.4 China's coal trade and its transportation risk analysis 115 4.4.1 History and current situation of China's coal trade 115 4.4.2 Coal trade and its transportation risk analysis 116 4.5 China's natural gas trade and its transportation risk analysis 118 4.5.1 Current status of China's natural gas supply and demand 118 4.5.2 China's natural gas trade and its transportation risk analysis 119 4.6 Chapter summary 122 Chapter 5 China，s energy reserves strategy 123 5.1 Status and characteristics of global strategic energy reserves 124 5.1.1 History and current situation of global strategic energy reserves 124 5.1.2 Characteristics and strategies of the U.S.strategic petroleum reserve 126 5.2 Optimal opportunity and strategies of stockpile acquisition for China's strategic petroleum reserve 128 5.2.1 China's strategic oil reserve plan 128 5.2.2 Uncertain dynamic programming model for China's strategic petroleum reserve 130 5.2.3 Optimal strategies of stockpile acquisition for China's strategic petroleum reserve 132 5.3 Optimal drawdown strategy for China'sstrategicpetroleumreserve in emergencies 136 5.3.1 Dynamic programming model for China's strategic petroleum reserve 136 5.3.2 Impact of different incidents on world oil price 140 5.3.3 Optimal strategy for China's strategic petroleum reserve under different emergency scenarios 142 5.3.4 Impact of drawdown and stockpile acquisition for China's strategic petroleum reserve on world oil price 144 5.3.5 China's refined oil reserve strategy 145 5.4 China's natural gas reserve strategy 147 5.4.1 Patterns and characteristics of natural gas reserve in representative countries 147 5.4.2 Status and strategies of China's natural gas reserve 148 5.5 China's coal reserve strategy 150 5.5.1 Status of China's coal reserves 150 5.5.2 Strategy recommendations for coal reserve 152 5.6 Chapter summary 152 Chapter 6 Key energy-saving sectors and regions under condition of energy security 154 6.1 Introduction 155 6.2 Research and data explanation 156 6.3 Key energy-saving sectors and regions 159 6.3.1 Key energy-saving regions for Agricultural sector 159 6.3.2 Key industrial energy-saving sectors and regions 159 6.3.3 Construction energy consumption 161 6.3.4 Key Energy-saving sectors and regions for the tertiary industry 161 6.3.5 Residential energy consumption 163 6.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications 164 Chapter 7Benefits of clean and renewable energy to energy security 166 7.1 Substitution effect of clean and renewable energy to fossil energy in the world 167 7.1.1 Global clean and renewable energy grows rapidly 167 7.1.2 The share of clean and renewable energy will continue to increase in future 170 7.2 Substitution effect of clean and renewable energy to fossil energyin China 170 7.2.1 Clean and renewable energy grows rapidly in China 170 7.2.2 China's hydropower reserve is still rich 172 7.2.3 China's nuclear power in 2020 is expected to account for 4%～5% of the total installed electricity capacity 172 7.2.4 China's wind power develops rapidly 173 7.2.5 Good prospects for China's solar energy utilization 174 7.2.6 Status and potential of China's bio-energy development 175 7.3 International comparison of clean and renewable energy development policies 176 7.3.1 Targets oriented 176 7.3.2 Policy incentives 176 7.3.3 Industrial supporting 177 7.3.4 Financial supports 177 7.4 Chapter summary 178 Chapter 8 Energy poverty and energy use security 179 8.1 The relationship between energy poverty and energy use security 180 8.1.1 Energy poverty and its global status 180 8.1.2 Status of energy poverty in China 181 8.2 Research of main factors influencing energy poverty 186 8.2.1 Influencing factors 186 8.2.2 Methodology 190 8.2.3 Model results and analysis 191 8.3 Regional energy poverty assessment in China 192 8.3.1 Energy development index in developing countries 192 8.3.2 Provincial energy poverty index in China 193 8.3.3 Main conclusions 196 8.4 Chapter summary 197 Chapter 9 China，s energy consumption and public health 198 9.1 Review of the impact of energy consumption on the environment and public health 199 9.1.1 Review of the impact of energy consumption on the environment 199 9.1.2 Review of researches about public health effects caused by environmental pollution 200 9.1.3 Review of the public health effects caused by regional pollution and industrial emissions 200 9.2 Economic Assessment of urban air pollution and public health effects 201 9.2.1 Background 201 9.2.2 Economic evaluation methods of environmental health effects and data sources 202 9.2.3 The health effects and economic losses of urban air pollutants 204 9.2.4 Scenario analysis 207 9.3 Economic Assessment of sector pollutants and public health effects 208 9.3.1 Methodology for assessing the effects of sector pollutants on publichealth and data sources 208 9.3.2 The health effects and economic losses assessment of sector pollutants 212 9.3.3 Economic losses assessmentof sector marginal health effects 214 9.3.4 Economic losses assessmentof energy marginal health effects 216 9.3.5 Scenario analysis 216 9.4 Main conclusions and recommendations 218 Chapter 10 Energy supply crisis and economy security research 220 10.1 History of global energy crisis and its impact 221 10.1.1 History of global energy crisis 221 10.1.2 Impact of oil crisis on the world macro-economy 222 10.2 Analysis of China's energy supply shortage event 226 10.2.1 China's energy supply shortages events in recent years 226 10.2.2 Influencing factors research of China's energy supply shortage 227 10.3 Socio-economic impact of crude oil supply disruption 229 10.3.1 Scenario settings of crude oil supply disruption 229 10.3.2 Socio-economic impact of crude oil supply disruption in China 229 10.4 Socio-economic impact of oil price rise 234 10.4.1 Scenario settings of oil price rise 234 10.4.2 Socio-economic impact of oil price rise in China 234 10.5 Contingency plan research of refined oil supply shortage 240 10.5.1 China's refined oil supply system 240 10.5.2 Model settings 244 10.5.3 Effects comparison of different refined oil supply shortage contingency plans 246 10.6 Chapter summary 247 Chapter 11 Comprehensive evaluation of the national energy security 249 11.1 Comparison of energy security policy in main countries 250 11.1.1 Increase energy science and technology investment; get energy technology breakthrough by all means 251 11.1.2 Diversify energy imports and decentralize the risk of energy import 252 11.1.3 All energy-importing countries vigorously develop strategic reserves; improve capability of energy emergency response 253 11.1.4 Optimize energy consumption structure; encourage the development of clean and renewable energy 254 11.1.5 Emphasize energy geo-politics; make diversified energy diplomacy and cooperation 256 11.1.6 Establish institutions to efficiently manage energy security; develop energy emergency laws and regulations 257 11.2 Comprehensive evaluation system for energy securityand the methodology 258 11.2.1 Comprehensive evaluation index of energy security 258 11.2.2 Comprehensive evaluation model of energy security 259 11.3 Comparison of energy supply security in main countries 261 11.3.1 Energy supply security index shows fluctuant rise in main developed countries 261 11.3.2 Energy supply security index tends to decrease in main developing countries 265 11.3.3 Energy supply security index increase substantially in most countries after the 2008 global financial crisis 267 11.3.4 Main Conclusions 267 11.4 Comprehensive assessment of China's energy security in the context of climate change 268 11.4.1 The impact of climate change on China's energy security policy 268 11.4.2 Data sources and pretreatment 269 11.4.3 China's energy supply security index shows a trend of decrease after rise 270 11.4.4 China's energy use security index shows a trend of rise with fluctuation 272 11.4.5 Climate protection and China's energy security 273 11.4.6 Main conclusions 274 11.5 Chapter summary 275 Chapter 12 Challenges and prospects of China，s energy security 276 12.1 Challenges of China's energy security 277 12.1.1 Thechallengefromenergy consumption with rapid growth 277 12.1.2 Thechallengefromenergy security impact factors diversification 277 12.1.3 Thechallengefromunitary security turning to diversified security 278 12.1.4 Thechallengefromglobal climate change 278 12.1.5 Thechallengefromenvironmental management and protection 279 12.1.6 Thechallengefromtotal energy consumption control 279 12.2 Prospects of energy supply and demand in China (till 2020) 280 12.2.1 Energy demand growth rate gradually falls，but the rate is quite uncertain 280 12.2.2 The proportion of coal consumption slowly declines， but the proportionof natural gas and renewable energy gradually increase 281 12.2.3 The production of crude oil and coal increase more and more slowly，but the overall clean and low-carbon energy grow fast 281 12.2.4 China's energy production center continue to move towards West，and large-scale，long-distant energy transportation cause new challenges for security and management 282 12.2.5 Net imports of coal，oil and natural gas will continue to be the first or second in the world，and the reform of natural gas pricing mechanism becomes urgent 282 12.3 Prospects of China's energy security 283 12.3.1 Energy imports continues to grow，and the dependence on foreign energy continues to increase 283 12.3.2 Energy transport channels achieve to be diversified and the transportation risks gradually decrease 283 12.3.3 National energy reserves is in large-scale，and the energy reserve system becomes relatively perfect 284 12.3.4 Energy market reform continue to steps in，and the price system improve gradually 285 12.3.5 Population in energy poverty decline rapidly， but there is a long way to go to completely eliminate energy poverty 285 12.4 Recommendations for China，s energy security 286 12.4.1 Improve storage-market-cooperation system， and build the framework of national energy security 286 12.4.2 Optimize the industrial structure， and achieve a low-carbon development 287 12.4.3 Diversify the energy imports， and reduce the transportation risk 287 12.4.4 Industrialize the renewable energy through fiscal support 287 12.4.5 Strengthen planning and macro-control，and meet energy investment needs 287 12.4.6 Build the energy security early-warning system to ensure the energy supply security 288 References 289
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